Putin killed half Gazprom. Ukraine has now killed the rest.

There is no going back now.

On August 27, during a press conference, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will not allow Russian oil and gas to flow through its territory in the future.

“The agreement with Russia will not be renewed, period, end of story,” he said.

Two days later, his advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, provided more details, saying Ukraine will stop oil from flowing through its territory in January 2025 — a comment he quickly had to backtrack because some contracts run until 2029.

It seems he made a mistake. He should have said that Ukraine will stop the gas flow in 2025 and the oil flow in 2029. The contract Ukraine has for allowing gas transit ends at the end of this year.

For gas, the region is facing a halt next year as Kyiv plans not to renew a contract with Moscow at the end of 2024. — Reuters

Let there be no doubt whatsoever: Zelensky is not going to renew the gas transit contract and let Gazprom off the hook. Putin could offer ten times the money, but he’s not getting a renewal.

He has no one but himself to blame for this mess.

Germany did not stop taking Russian gas after Putin invaded Ukraine. They literally had no choice but to keep relying on the Nord Stream pipelines to keep going — 55% dependency left them with no way out. They weren’t even thinking of an exit until Putin decided to stop the flow of gas, tip Germany into a recession, and break the Western alliance supporting Ukraine.

Germany had to work its backside off to find alternative suppliers and reduce consumption. They tackled both the supply and demand sides and reached safety by the end of the year. Now, they don’t care about the Nord Stream pipelines because they don’t need them anymore.

The main pipeline is gone.

The biggest customer is gone.

Putin drove them away. Gazprom quickly turned its attention to China, but they’re not interested. Why would they be?

Russia: “Hey, I just tried to screw my biggest customer and tip him into a deep recession. But I have so much gas that I can offer you cheap, so why not buy it and boost your economy?”

China: “Sorry, all weather friend. No, thank you.”

That left Gazprom with a small number of customers for its gas. And a lot of that gas is still flowing through Ukraine.

The Sudzha pipeline, part of the larger Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod system, is the major pipeline that carries Russian gas through Ukraine to various European countries.

Hungary, Austria, and Slovakia are still taking in large amounts of Russian gas through these pipelines, helping Gazprom survive in an increasingly dystopian world.

With Nord Stream gone and Ukraine making it clear that this will be the end of land transit routes for gas through their territory, Gazprom is now left with one routes: one through through Belarus and Poland. They would have had the Turkey- Bulgaria route, but sadly this pipeline runs through Sudza, which is now under Ukrainian control. The day Ukraine took control of the gas metering station in Kursk, Putin should have realized Gazprom is gone.

From having a vast network of pipelines that increased Western dependency and political connectivity to Russia, Gazprom is now reduced to just these two pipelines.

Considering the amount of gas the entire network used to move daily, these last two pipelines won’t be enough to save Gazprom. If Poland and Bulgaria follow Ukraine’s lead and refuse to renew contracts — an easy choice for them since they aren’t major users of Russian gas — Gazprom’s end will be written in bold letters.

I think it’s over.

Gazprom doesn’t have the money to build alternative supply routes. They don’t have the strength to find alternative buyers capable of taking the volume that the Western world once did. Time is not on their side. Without pipelines, Gazprom is just another supplier in a competitive world. The cost of their gas will increase, and their past behavior will make it less likely for anyone to strike a long term deal with them.

Will you?

Isn’t that the whole reason China is refusing to entertain Russia’s proposal to build a new pipeline? Nobody wants to be energy-dependent on Russia.

Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 262 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.