Putin Sends Feelers to the United States: “Prepared to Share Crimea with Ukraine”
We have seen this before, haven’t we?
The consensus from Western think tanks for more than a year has been that Russia will lose momentum sometime in 2025 and then lose all direction in 2026, as they run out of resources they can excavate from their storage.
“The number of systems held in storage means that while Russia can maintain a consistent output through 2024, it will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks,” analysts from British think tank RUSI wrote in February this year.
They were not alone.
Many Western experts have arrived at the same conclusion: that Russia can continue this war for a few more years. My timelines, however, were extremely different. I did not complicate things with mathematics, past data, and satellite images of open warehouses inside Russia. Instead, I derived my timelines by analyzing the way the Russian army was acting on the battlefield.
The arrival of golf carts and motorcycles did not suggest a nation capable of sustaining the war effort through the refurbishment of stocks in 2025. Instead, it signaled a nation struggling to keep things together on the…
