Putin’s Army Just Threw a Hail Mary in Kursk — And It’s About to Backfire

A Bold Start, a Faltering Middle — Heading Toward a Predictable Failure.

God, it feels like an eternity since I last wrote a frontline assessment. Lately, everything has been about politics, ceasefires, and negotiations — everything except the actual fighting. But the past 48 hours have brought significant developments that demand our attention.

Sensing the confusion within Ukrainian ranks — brought on by the abrupt halt in U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing — the Kremlin has ordered its units in Kursk to find a way to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the region. Their plan? Cut the H07 highway, the critical artery connecting Sumy (Ukraine) and Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, Russia). If successful, this move would sever a key supply route feeding Ukrainian troops operating in Kursk.

The Russian Strategy: Cut the Supply, Force the Retreat

The Russians made notable progress, managing to infiltrate the dense woodlands south of Sudzha — a move reflected in the latest DeepStateMap updates. It was a clever tactical breach. Ukrainian forces certainly had defensive positions at the woodland’s entrance, but that line broke, allowing Russian troops to push forward through the trees.

This section, however, is heavily forested, as seen in the satellite imagery below.

Now, ask yourself — does this terrain look motorable? Absolutely not. There is no way Russia can push significant troop numbers through these woods to link up with forces advancing toward the H07 highway in the Sumy direction (1) . At best, they can keep sneaking infantry through, use the breach to spread propaganda about an imminent Ukrainian collapse, and amplify panic through Western media channels. If Ukrainian forces panic, that could create a real opening for Russia.

But here’s the flaw in the plan — Sudzhа is the anchor town. It’s Ukraine’s command hub inside Kursk, fortified and fiercely defended since October. Reports suggest 20,000 Ukrainian troops are currently stationed in the region. So how does one infantry breach south of Sudzha suddenly translate into an encirclement of Ukrainian forces?

Russian Propaganda: And the Media Took the Bait

Despite the obvious strategic limitations, Russian propagandists wasted no time in declaring that Ukrainian forces in Kursk were on the verge of collapse. Even some Western and Ukrainian media fell for it — broadcasting premature reports of an impending encirclement.

Was the initial Russian strategy a bad one? Not at all. A two-pronged attack on the H07 highway made sense. But the missing element? Follow-through.

Russia needed sustained offensives to reinforce its push north of Sumy (Phase One of their plan). That didn’t happen. I see no major troop movements to consolidate gains or escalate pressure on the highway.

Right now, this operation looks more like a Hail Mary pass — one that relied too heavily on disinformation and chaos to succeed. And I still can’t believe that some Western outlets ran with the Russian narrative before waiting for official statements from Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

So, What’s Next for Russia?

It’s unclear what their next move is. If they’re serious about taking the H07 highway, they’ll need a major troop surge. Scattered attacks won’t cut it. And they can’t simply shift troops from inside Kursk — they’d have to relocate forces from the broader frontline, doing so covertly to avoid detection.

Could this mobilization succeed? Possibly — because Ukraine is in a temporary blind spot. The U.S. intelligence blackout has left Kyiv in the dark. That gives Russia some opportunities to exploit, and I expect more breaches here and there over the next few weeks.

How Long Until Ukraine Recovers?

That depends on how quickly France and Britain can figure out alternative intelligence sources. If I had to guess? Three weeks. Expect breaches, but also expect Ukraine to patch them up after a few days.

I’m not worried about the frontline itself. Ukraine might lose some territory, but it won’t be significant, and the lines won’t collapse.

What I am worried about? Russia’s missile attacks.

Without U.S. intelligence and early warning systems, Ukraine is vulnerable. These strikes could cause real damage — and that’s where Europe must step in. Closing this gap isn’t impossible, but it requires urgency.

Hopefully, they move fast.

Update: Recent reports say that “ US President Donald Trump’s team has ordered the termination of vital support for F-16 fighter jet jamming equipment that Ukraine has. What is important to understand is that this could deprive the Ukrainian Air Force of its most important air countermeasures”.

Without EW systems and some control over the sky, Ukraine cannot successfully hold Kursk. A withdrawal or a significant reduction of its footprint in Kursk Oblast is highly likely under these circumstances.

Both sides will now focus on Pokrovsk.

Thanks for reading. Making critical information about Ukraine accessible is more important than ever. That’s why I’ve published 371 stories for the public in 2024 and 2025.