Putin’s Backup Plan: Escalating Missile Stockpile
Ukraine Must Prepare for This Threat
As Russia starts to run out of heavy weapons and vehicles, Vladimir Putin is banking on mass infantry and a growing pile of missiles to bail him out.
The Russians have the missiles. They are building an estimated 100 to 130 missiles of various types every month, which amounts to more than 1,200 missiles a year. They also have many different types of launch vehicles: missiles can be fired from the sea, long-range bombers can be used, or it can be fired from ground-based mobile launchers.
The Russian army is not simply building and storing missiles; they are also improving them. The complexity of their attacks has increased. For example, before the successful attack that killed scores of people at the Kharkiv supermarket, they tested the strength of Ukrainian defenses by dropping bombs from fighter jets. After sometime, the guided bombs found their way into the supermarket.
The Kh-101 missile that destroyed the largest children’s hospital in Kyiv made an almost vertical dive before detonation. It was a complex attack that managed to penetrate one of the most densely packed air-defense networks in Ukraine. “According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack began at approximately 10:00 AM local time and involved at least 36 missiles, including 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles”.
Kyiv remains the most protected area in Ukraine, yet the Russians managed to breach its defenses.
Not only urban centers like Kyiv and Kharkiv have been targeted, but the Russians also successfully attacked Ukraine’s forward airbases in the first week of June. The penetration rate of Russian missiles has increased considerably this year compared to last year.
Despite the success, the Russians are still not using their missiles at scale. The number of missiles they used in the first half of 2024 is far less than the number of missiles they have in storage. There are reports suggesting that Russia has imported missiles from Iran. While it’s uncertain whether to fully believe this report, it’s not something to dismiss outright.
Things continue to deteriorate for Putin. The Russian economy is under tremendous stress, the army is struggling to recruit new troops, the Black Sea Fleet is fearful of operating at sea, and there aren’t enough tanks and armored vehicles for the approximately half a million troops stationed in occupied territories. The Russian air force and long-range missiles remain the two areas where Russia still has an advantage.
Ukraine lacks long-range missiles. If not resolved quickly, the Ukranian air force will take a very long time before it becomes a formidable force.
Ukraine is a vast country, and it will never be able to protect all its territory unless the Western world decides to fully saturate the skies with air-defense weapons — short, medium, and long range. The West supplied five long-range units in 2023, and after intense pressure, agreed to send another five units this year.
While this is a reasonable upgrade, it may not be enough to counter the approximately 1,000 missiles in Russia’s possession. What is the point of targeting the arrow when there is an option to take out the archer?
Security Analyst Colby Badhwar proposes a solution to this dilemma. The direction he proposes is the right one to undertake in these conditions. He writes:
Ukraine is contending with the classic missile defense dilemma: interceptors are often more expensive, and certainly more scarce, than the targets they seek to destroy. The solution? Ukraine must be empowered by President Biden to shoot the archer, not just the arrow.
I don’t know who coined this idiom, but the oldest instance I found of it in the context of missile defense is from a 1988 Steve Engelberg article in NYT. An officer in the US Navy used it to illustrate their air and missile defense doctrine to Engelberg.
Engelberg explained: “Because missiles can be fired well before the plane carrying them is in view, American military doctrine calls for the captain to defend his ship by knocking down hostile aircraft as soon as he believes he is under attack.
Engelberg explained: “Because missiles can be fired well before the plane carrying them is in view, American military doctrine calls for the captain to defend his ship by knocking down hostile aircraft as soon as he believes he is under attack.
This of course applies to ground based air defenses as well. It’s preferable to shoot down enemy aircraft before they have an opportunity to fire their missiles. Better yet, destroy them on the ground before they even begin their sorties.
The most immediate solution to address this threat is to allow Ukraine to fully utilize the ATACMS missiles. If Ukraine is permitted to use these missiles to target Russian airbases within their 300 km range, Russia will be forced to pull back its jets deeper into its own territory.
This would increase the flying time of Russian fighter jets, thereby taxing the Russian air force and improving Ukraine’s ability to intercept the missiles. While the Russians would still be able to fire long-range missiles from deep within their territory, removing the restriction on ATACMS would enable Ukraine to decimate Russian air-defense systems within 300 km of the frontline. After removing the air-defense systems, Ukraine can deploy the F16s to make the Russian frontline troops extremely vulnerable.
The time to play for a draw is over; there is only one way to end this conflict: to pursue a decisive victory.
- Ukraine needs to be allowed to use the ATACMS to push the Russian air force deeper into Russian territory.
- They also need a reasonable number of air-defense systems to defend against Russian missiles (thankfully, this part has been addressed).
- To counter the Russian air force effectively, Ukraine must be supplied with more F-16s.
- ATACMS + Air-Defense systems + F16s
The West has indeed mishandled the F-16 training program by not training enough pilots. However, there is still a way forward. Ukraine could recruit retired pilots from the Western world. If done with Western support, this gap could be filled. Many retired pilots would likely be interested in assisting Ukraine.
I believe Ukraine could easily recruit 50 to 100 pilots from the West. Putin’s army is tricking Indians, Nepalis, Cubans, and Africans to enlist and fight against Ukraine.
Allowing Ukraine to recruit around 100 volunteers from the Western world to fly F-16s should be a no-brainer.
There are viable ways to address the growing Russian missile threat, and following this path will lead to a Ukrainian victory.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 220 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
