Putin’s Buddy Orban has 72 opportunities to veto Ukrainian EU membership. Ukraine needed only one response.
Hungary’s Victor Orban runs out of time
Are bullies smart?
Bullies exhibit a type of psychological sickness, often characterized by psychopathic traits.
I have mixed feelings about their level of intelligence. It seems to manifest inconsistently, perhaps in specific situations.
When someone embraces their inner bully, they begin to experience the strategic advantages of manipulative behavior. Over time, they refine their ability to select victims and build an inner circle that enhances their perceived threat and reinforces their behavior. However, the environment and the type of victims they target play significant roles in the evolution of a bully.
The Victor Orban led Hungarian government last week experienced the downside of embracing their inner bully.
Hungary and Slovakia are not receiving oil from Russia’s Lukoil after Ukraine imposed a ban on the transit of oil from the company.
“We have been able to stabilise the situation with temporary solutions, but these will not be enough even for the near future,” Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told a news briefing last Friday.
Despite the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and an EU price cap on Russian oil exports, Russia continues to supply oil to nations around the world. Russia also continues to supply oil to landlocked Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Ukraine.
The Druzhba pipeline is one of the world’s longest oil pipelines and one of the largest oil pipeline networks in the world. It began operation in 1964 and remains in operation today. It carries oil some 4,000 kilometres (2,500 mi) from the eastern part of European Russia to points in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Germany. The network also branches out into numerous smaller pipelines to deliver its product throughout Eastern Europe and beyond.
After Putin invaded Ukraine, the European Union imposed numerous sanctions on Russian oil exported by sea but exempted oil transported through pipelines. The intention was to give Eastern European nations time to adjust their supply sources.
However, Hungary and Slovakia, both of which have varying degrees of Putin sympathizers in their respective governments, never bothered to find alternative sources. As a result, Russian oil continued flowing through these pipelines unimpeded, sending millions of dollars to the Kremlin every day.
Ukraine has now taken the matter into its own hands, according to Inna Sovsun, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the opposition pro-EU Holos party who sits on the parliament’s energy committee.
“We have been waiting for over two years for the EU, for the G7, to introduce real sanctions against Russian [pipeline] oil,” she said, noting that the pipeline still carries 200,000 barrels of crude per day.
Hungary and Slovakia have equally split around 900,000 metric tons of Russian oil every month, according to industry sources cited by Reuters. Overall, Russia exported around 1.1 million metric tons (250,000 barrels per day) via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Ukraine.
The amount of money Hungary paid for its oil imports from Russia was closer to 250 million euros for the month of April. That’s effortless revenue for the Kremlin’s war machine — a war against Europe funded by European nations that have no problem enjoying the benefits of the bloc while working from the inside to undermine it.
Time and time again, since Putin invaded Ukraine, the Hungarian government led by Viktor Orban has thrown roadblocks in European efforts to help Ukraine.
In December 2022, citing human rights violations, the European Union froze €22 billion in EU cohesion funds marked for Hungary. “These funds are largely paid as reimbursements for money spent by national governments on domestic programs”.
The problem with bullies is that they act as if only they can govern and no one else. Open the hood, and you’ll see all sorts of things falling apart. In the first quarter of 2024, Hungary reported an abysmal growth rate of 0.8%. They have been hovering around 0% for a while now.
Orban was heavily dependent on EU money to govern. He needs the EU funds but has shown no interest in following the rule of law. So, the EU threatened to withhold its money unless democratic institutions in Hungary are strengthened.
Orban responded by vetoing anything and everything that involved helping Ukraine. Left without a way forward, the EU bent under pressure and unblocked €10.2 billion in cohesion funds in December 2023.
That sounds like corruption 101 to me. Here we have a government that refuses to protect the rule of law. The EU blocks its money, asking for changes, and Hungary responds by obstructing the EU’s efforts to help Ukraine. The EU then releases part of the money and allows Ukraine’s EU accession talks to continue.
It didn’t even end there. Orban once again tried to stop the European Union from creating a €50 billion Ukraine economic assistance package in early 2024. Only after Europe threatened to exclude Hungary and do away with unanimous consent for the creation of the package did Hungary fall in line.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk informed Orban before the vote that it was time to stop playing games and he must choose a side. “He has to consider if he is in or out,” Tusk stated.
The Viktor Orban problem the EU faces is by no means over; it has been temporarily managed. Every time the EU devises a plan to help Ukraine and counter Russian aggression, Orban is likely to use his position as a member of the bloc to assist Putin, harm Ukraine, and undermine the European Union. His actions over the last two years provide ample evidence to reach that conclusion.
Now, why exactly should Ukraine not respond to Orban’s obstruction by stopping the oil flowing through its territory? Orban has had more than two years to find alternative supplies. At one point, Germany was importing more than 40% of its gas from Russia, and now they are importing virtually nothing, having achieved this in less than a year.
Had Orban wanted to end reliance on Russian oil, he had plenty of time to do so. But he never pursued this path because he simply assumed the EU lacked the resolve to force him to change his behavior.
Now, Ukraine has taken matters into its own hands and blocked the flow of oil. This puts the Hungarian government in a delicate situation. They can’t immediately find alternative suppliers and now realize that disrupting EU-Ukraine cooperation won’t be as easy as it once was.
One might have thought, given the state of the Hungarian economy, that the EU would pressure Ukraine to relent. But thankfully, they have not. There have been no public statements from EU leaders to help the Orban led Hungarian government navigate a problem they assumed would never arise.
However, I do think some background negotiations are happening in Brussels. The outcome remains uncertain. The good news is Orban has been called out. He has a weakness that was left untouched for more than two years. Ukraine has identified it, decided to press and see the response.
The next time Putin and Orban plan to disrupt EU efforts to help Ukraine, they will both be extremely cautious because a significant amount of oil still flows through pipelines via Ukraine. Russia still accounts for 70% of Hungarian oil imports.
The Hungarian government is now running around the EU, arguing that this is a violation of the rule of law. They are outraged that Ukraine would dare to stop the oil transiting through its land.
Where was the Orban government talking about the rule of law when Russia’s Gazprom choked off natural gas supplies to Germany in 2022? Where was Mr. Orban, the peacemaker, when Germany was in deep trouble, scrambling to find alternatives for Russian gas? Why did he not talk to Putin and help Germany out of trouble?
One rule for Russia and another for Ukraine? That’s what they are implying, isn’t it? Since they did nothing to help Germany out of trouble, they have set a precedent: When you are in trouble, don’t ask the EU for help. Go ahead and take care of yourself. Perhaps talk to Putin and figure out a way to maintain that 70% oil dependency for as long as possible.
Neither Ukraine nor EU should take it upon themselves to fix Putin’s troublemakers living in European lands. You can’t reform bullies. You just need to make sure that the option for bullying does not exist anymore. That is the only way to deal with them.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 220 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
