Putin’s Ceasefire: How to Invade and Demand the Rightful Owner to Leave
West collectively dismisses the invader’s offer
Desperate times, desperate measures. In an attempt to derail the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland and bolster his domestic support, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from its own lands to begin negotiations. The summit begins today, and he outlined his demands yesterday.
According to Putin’s proposal:
- Negotiations will begin after Ukraine agrees to withdraw from the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
- The Kremlin will guarantee safe passage for Ukrainian soldiers to withdraw from their own lands.
- The international community must recognize all the territory annexed by Russia.
- Western sanctions must be lifted.
“Several prominent Russian milbloggers also stated that Putin’s demands are unachievable and resemble an ultimatum to the West, similar to the absurd ultimatums he delivered to the US and NATO in December 2021 as a diplomatic ruse to buy time while preparing to invade Ukraine and seize Kyiv,” the Institute of Study of War wrote in its assessment today.
Even Russian military bloggers cannot believe Putin’s demands are achievable in the current environment.
Western leaders, unlike in past instances such as the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, 2012 war in Donbas, 2008 war in Georgia, and 1999 war against Chechnya, collectively dismissed all his ideas and demands, urging him to withdraw.
During the earlier wars, some prominent Western leaders were sympathetic to Putin, advocating for appeasement to avoid provocation. This allowed Putin to incrementally seize foreign lands on Russia’s western border. This time, however, Western leaders are united in their stance against him.
While there may still be leaders who quietly wish to negotiate with Putin, they are acutely aware of public perception. The majority of Europeans and Americans now understand Putin’s true nature and oppose any appeasement.
European Support for Ukraine Remains Unwavering
- 89% agree with providing humanitarian support to those affected by the war.
- 84% agree with welcoming refugees from the war into the EU.
- 72% agree with providing financial support to Ukraine.
American Support Remains Solid
A majority of Americans want Ukraine to reclaim the occupied territories.
Politicians are heavily influenced by public opinion, which currently leans strongly against appeasing Putin. Additionally, the Baltic nations and Poland vehemently oppose any deal with Putin, as they fear being the next targets of Russian aggression.
Consequently, any Western leader contemplating a deal with Putin remains silent, unlike former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who aided Putin after the 2008 invasion of Georgia. The current geopolitical environment is vastly different from what Putin experienced in 2008 and 2014. He continues to employ the same strategy: invade, threaten, force the West to concede, rest, and repeat after a few years.
However, unlike previous occasions, Putin now faces the potential collapse of the Russian state. The ruble is weak, sanctions are tightening, daily casualties in Ukraine have tripled, and Russia faces a severe labor shortage. Despite these pressures, showing weakness would undermine any chance of negotiating a favorable deal.
Thus, Putin masks his desperation with outrageous demands. The most fitting response to his demands would be: “Why are we listening to someone who bombs children’s hospitals?”
Where Did Putin Go Wrong with His Information War?
He is good at it. I will give him that. But in all those past occasions where he successfully convinced the West not to act in accordance with its own strength, Putin controlled the discussions from the get-go. Whether in Georgia or Crimea, things went according to his plan.
This time, Putin simply assumed he would roll over Ukraine in three days, yet the war is already in its third year. He lost the benefit of the doubt Europeans and Americans accorded him during previous conflicts. People genuinely believed there were separatist problems in Donbas, Crimea, and Georgia. That is not the case with his invasion of Ukraine. The day his army marched toward Kyiv, common people understood what he was trying to do.
Not many in the Western world thought this was a just act. There was no place to hide his true intentions. After two and a half years, Putin lost all his credibility in Europe. It is so bad that even the European right-wingers he supported for years find it hard to even say Putin is right. They are only saying let us not get dragged into this war or let us not expand the war.
That was his failure.
Now he is facing the repercussions. Not a single Western leader has the courage to tell their people that they should consider Putin’s proposal and cleave Ukraine.
As a result, Putin will never be able to get the West to the negotiating table as he had done in the past. He thinks he can, but it’s not going to work.
President Biden is on the Right Track
Let’s not be naive. This war will end not when Putin wants it to, but when President Biden decides it will. The US President has lost a bit of control over influencing Ukrainian decision-making as the war drags on, but he still retains the ability to influence this conflict.
Deploying two thousand ATACMS missiles and ordering MTX to supply Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine every month (he can send the bill to Europe) until the war is over would put an end to the Kremlin. That would be the end of Russia as we know it. He did not do that, but he also did not take the approach of Barack Obama or Angela Merkel.
When the Russians contacted the Biden administration at the end of last year to test the waters for a ceasefire, they were resoundingly rejected. This was during a period when the United States was not supplying any aid to Ukraine. That matters a lot. Even then, the Biden administration was not willing to engage with Putin.
That says a lot.
I don’t think President Biden will ever agree to Putin’s peace proposal.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 190 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one. Feel free to share it with anyone.
