Putin’s plan to go after Ukraine’s Strengthening Economy has a tiny little hole.
A good response will allow the west to turn the tables on Putin
Since October 5th, Russia has attacked cargo ships docked at the port of Odesa four times. Before the war, Odesa, along with nearby ports like Chornomorsk and Yuzhny, handled over 70% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Today, that figure is likely even higher, as these three ports provide Ukraine’s only access to its maritime trading route on the Black Sea, running along the coastlines of NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.
ISW: Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since October 5, part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine’s grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.
Odesa Oblast officials reported that Russian forces struck the port of Odesa with a ballistic missile during the day on October 14, hitting the civilian vessels NS Moon flying the Belize flag and the Optima dry cargo vessel flying the Palau flag, as well as port infrastructure and a grain warehouse.
The increasing frequency of Russian attacks signals that Putin believes the West will not respond to his blatant violations of the Geneva Convention — or to his other war crimes. He acts with impunity, confident he can do as he pleases without facing consequences.
This behavior is typical of Putin. As the Russian economy edges closer to a deep long term recession, his options for sustaining the war are shrinking, while Ukraine, by contrast, continues to strengthen its position.
A strengthening Ukrainian economy spells trouble for Russia, as it enables Ukraine to further invest in its growing defense industry. Ukraine has nearly $20 billion in weapons production capacity, though only a third of that is currently operational due to financial limitations. However, each boost to Ukraine’s GDP could change that dramatically.
As Ukraine expands its production base, its reliance on Western military support will decrease. This shift comes at a time when Putin’s economy is struggling to patch the cracks caused by his own policies.
Instead of finding ways to revive Russia’s economy — an increasingly impossible task — Putin has chosen a more achievable goal: further destabilizing Ukraine’s economy. The odds are high that he will continue targeting Ukraine’s grain exports, aiming to choke off this vital sector. This strategy will hurt Ukraine, and the world, but for Putin, there’s little downside.
These attacks also raise difficult questions for Ukraine. With the recent delivery of three long-range air defense systems from Europe, plus another expected from the U.S., Ukraine must decide where to deploy them. Ideally, these systems would be positioned in the east and north to protect population centers and critical civilian infrastructure. However, Putin’s intensified assaults on Odesa may force Ukraine to redirect some of its defenses to the port.
Ukraine doesn’t have much of a choice here — it must prioritize protecting the grain corridor. By targeting Odesa, Russia is stretching Ukraine’s air defense systems thin and presenting tough challenges for Ukraine’s Western allies, who are reluctant to part with their air defense units.
Germany, for example, has been working on strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses since January 2024, yet after 10 months, Ukraine has received only three units, with two deliveries still incomplete.
Putin’s strategy is far from irrational. Given the choice between attacking a moving target (ships on the move) and a stationary one (ships docked at the port), he will almost always choose the latter. Ukraine must find a way to safeguard its ports. Instead of repositioning its long-range systems like American Patriots or French SAMP-T units, Ukraine could consider moving medium- to short-range systems, such as NASAMS and IRIS-T, closer to Odesa.
There is also a simpler, more immediate solution that Ukraine’s Western allies could implement to ease the strain on Ukraine’s air defense: deploy NATO’s early warning aircraft to provide critical data to the air defense systems protecting Odesa and nearby regions. This would reduce the need to send additional long-range units to the port.
NATO operates 14 Boeing E-3A Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, which deliver critical capabilities such as air surveillance, command and control, battle space management, and communications for the Alliance. These aircraft can monitor an area of 120,000 square miles and simultaneously track approximately 600 targets. Equipped with active surveillance sensors housed in a rotating radar dome (known as the “rotodome”), the E-3A provides comprehensive 360-degree radar coverage, detecting aircraft at distances exceeding 215 nautical miles and rotating once every 10 seconds.
AWACS aircraft are capable of detecting and tracking enemy aircraft, missiles, and drones at ranges far exceeding those of short and medium-range air defense systems on the ground. This early detection provides crucial lead time for ground-based air defenses, allowing them to prepare for and engage incoming threats more effectively. Their real-time tracking capabilities also enhance overall situational awareness for air defense units.
By providing real-time tracking and targeting data, AWACS enhance the capabilities of ground-based radars, enabling air defense systems to concentrate on engagement rather than detection. In essence, integrating NATO’s surveillance capabilities with short- to medium-range air defense units protecting the Odesa port area can significantly improve the interception rate of Russian missiles.
Sweden has supplied two early warning aircraft to Ukraine, but this will not provide round-the-clock coverage across the country; it will only offer partial coverage. By leveraging NATO’s full spectrum of air surveillance capabilities in southern Ukraine, Crimea, and Odesa, the West can significantly enhance the effectiveness of the limited air defense units stationed in Odesa. This would go a long way in preventing Putin from undermining the Ukrainian economy and causing another spike in global grain prices.
This is not a heavy lift for the Western world. NATO and Europe must take the initiative and get this done. If they approach US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, he will likely ensure that this question remains unresolved for another three months. It’s time to sit down, make the decision, and take action.
NATO has a new leadership structure in place. Former Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte is the new Secretary General, while the ever-reliable Kaja Kallas, former Prime Minister of Estonia, is now the EU's top diplomat.
Leveraging NATO’s surveillance capabilities to assist Ukraine will be an excellent starting point for them, effectively turning the tables on Putin.
Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 310 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
