Regarding the Cook political report, there is some thing you need to note.

Their own poll is showing baldwin with a 2 point lead and that is a tossup according to them. If we use that yardstick, then why is Arizona senate race likely D when Glgo is leading by more than 8 points. It should be solid D isn't it. From the top down everyone is doing their bit to keep the GOP ahead. My be due to their 2016 fear. They keep overcompensating.