Russia Grounds its Airforce in Eastern Ukraine
Cracks are visible
The second week of March 2024 will be a bit sad for the Ukrainian military. The record-breaking streak of almost daily Russian fighter jet kills that lasted over the last two weeks is going to come to an end.
Russians have stopped flying over Eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated yesterday that “Russian aviation activity completely stopped in eastern Ukraine around 19:00 local time following the Ukrainian downing of two Russian Su-34 aircraft”.
This decision by the Russian high command was no accident. In February 2024, Russia suffered its worst losses since the start of this war. More than a dozen aircrafts were knocked down, while the Russian military lost an estimated 28,507 personnel.
30,000 personnel, is probably a bit a more than ten percent of their combat strength. Lost in a month with less than 30 days.
Leave it to men like Elon Musk and his friends to pitch the Russian actions in Ukraine over the past month as a great victory. Their idea is to keep us focused on Ukrainian losses, and avoid discussing anything about the cost the Russian society, military and the Kremlin is paying to achieve these marginal victories.
A Ukrainian soldier told the Washington Post that the “Russian military sent inexperienced personnel who appeared to be 40 to 50 years old to attack in waves each morning, afternoon, and evening without protective vests or helmets near Avdiivka. Another Ukrainian serviceman observed that the Russian skill levels were not “really consistent” and that some servicemen had more advanced equipment than their counterparts who only had basic rifles”.
Russia’s got loads of troops stationed in Ukraine. According to the Institute of Study of War, they’ve got enough manpower to rotate their frontline soldiers. And they’ve got a decent recruitment system in place, so they can keep sending fresh bodies to the frontlines as needed.
But the meats (convicts and old men) and boots(trained soldiers) strategy the Russian military has deployed in Ukraine is not a good one. Russia is filling up its troop strength by bringing in old men, convicts and in some cases economically desperate individuals from various parts the world. Due to this mix of trained and untrained soldiers battling Ukrainians at the frontline, Russia will have to sacrifice lot more human resources now than they have done before.
The only way Russia can afford to keep going at this rate is if they can recruit more than they lose. If they are losing one thousand lives every day, they will have to recruit at least 1000 every day to retain the troop capacity.
If that is being done, then it creates another set of problem.
How do you pull that many hands out of the Russian workforce, especially when it’s expected to be short of more than 5 million workers in 2024? Russia’s been trying this in hopes that it won’t break their economic back and that they’ll be able to keep kicking the can down the road for as long as possible. Putin was banking on the Russian National Wealth Fund to protect the economy from going into a tailspin.
Unfortunately for Putin, Russia has burned a ton of its liquid reserves. The current position of these reserves is much further from where it was when the war started.
But hold up, let’s not jump to conclusions and say that the Russian economy is about to collapse just because it seems like the reserve depletion rate might wipe out all the liquid reserves by the end of this year. It’s likely heading in that direction, and once it does, Russia will probably tap into its illiquid reserves using its central bank to keep things rolling.
And there are a couple of other options on the table to keep things going. For instance, Putin could opt to completely shut down Russian healthcare services, funneling those funds elsewhere. He could also close down all fire stations, redeploying firefighters to the frontline and allocating funds to support the war effort. Let’s face it, Putin doesn’t give a damn about Russian lives or Russian standard of living.
He will say some cute shit to the Russians. He will get his state media to talk about North Korean way of life.
Putin will shake the state down for every last penny to fund the war and protect himself. So, the Kremlin has a few tricks up its sleeve to prevent the economy from collapsing or the war machine from running out of funds altogether.
But what it does show is that the war is costing more than what Russia can earn. The rate of liquid reserve depletion has brought the Kremlin dangerously close to operating on a shoestring budget. There’s no savings margin to absorb any shocks. A drop in oil prices would be devastating, as there aren’t many reserves to fall back on.
The United States must pump out as much oil as it can over the next twelve months. They need to keep flooding the oil market.
Russians do not have the ability to run the war without hurting or lowering the standard of living of the Russian society.
Those days are over.
The monetary fall back Putin had built to support his war machine is exhausted.
The current economic situation requires Russia to halt the depletion of its workforce. But the Russian military doesn’t have that luxury. As we’ve seen, the daily loss rate suffered by the Russians is near 1 thousand. That amounts to a staggering 30,000 Russians lost every month. To maintain combat capability, if you’re losing a quarter million in a year, you’ll need to pull in another quarter million from the workforce.
The end of 2024 isn’t looking very bright for the Russians. Another half a million dead or alive on the Ukrainian battlefield over the next twelve months is going to weigh heavily on the Russian economy, and this time they may not have any more room to maneuver.
Since the start of the war, I’ve consistently argued that the Russian economy is far from collapse and the Ruble is far from tanking as some predicted. However, for the first time, I’m revising that forecast. For the first time since the beginning of the war, I believe the Ruble is very close to trouble.
The Ruble continues to weaken against the Dollar and Euro. Further declines will intensify pressure on the economy. The Ruble is now highly susceptible to oil price shocks in the market.
Putin has essentially opened multiple wounds to his economy. He can’t finance the war without diverting funds intended for Russian society. Sending men to the frontline means drawing from the workforce and fueling inflation. Sustaining the current pace of the offensive requires injecting steroids into all of these issues.
Russia’s decision to pull back its air force may seem smart, although I’m somewhat disappointed by it. However, it also indicates something important: all the right-wing chatter and the Kremlin’s exaggerated assessments of their strength amount to little more than hot air.
If the ground forces continue their current pace of attacks without the support of their air force, they will run out of steam completely within two months.
Why?
Because they’ve already lost tens of thousands of troops in Avdiivka. They’re set to lose another 60,000 to 100,000 in the next 60 days — far too many for an army relying on 50-year-olds armed with rifles and without vests.
Ukraine has to withstand the attacks. I anticipate the pace of Russian ground assaults to decrease over the next 45 days, assuming Ukraine’s ammunition situation returns to its previous state.
The decision by the Russians to ease up a bit seems reasonable. However, the choice made by Ukraine’s European allies to procure artillery shells from outside the EU is a crucial factor. This would undoubtedly have influenced Russian military strategists. Assuming one million shells are en route to Ukraine, this will enable Ukraine to fire approximately 5,500 shells daily for six months. Or double that number for three months.
Russia can take risks when Ukraine lacks ammunition. However, doing so when Ukraine’s ammunition situation is expected to improve is extremely perilous. In my view, the decision to slow down aviation isn’t just due to the rate of fighter jet losses, but also because of the anticipated influx of artillery shells to Ukraine.
What should Ukraine do now?
Nothing.
They should stick to their current plan. If the Russians return their aircraft to the frontline, Ukraine needs to take them out. If the Russians slow down their infantry attack, then Ukraine can take advantage of the momentary peace. Ukraine should adopt a defensive stance for some time, possibly until the summer, without the need for counter-attacks.
They should build up reserves and only react to Russian counter-attacks.
They should refocus their attention on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It’s had too much of a break over the last month.
I also want to revise my prediction that Russians will go after Robotyne. They will try but it won’t be massive. They need two things in the their favor to ease the Ukrainian hold on Robotyne. They need air control over the sector. They also need Ukraine to be short of artillery. Since both these factors have moved in favor of Ukraine, Russia will hesitate to pour massive resources to go after Robotyne or any other location for that matter.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
