Russia in a Catch-22

Full-mobilization flies out the window

Shankar Narayan

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Shiny parades have become a thing of the past (Licensed Image)

This morning, as I stumbled upon two distinct comments, my initial reaction was: There goes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hidden wish to fully mobilize the Russian state for war.

Putin’s done some wild stuff, like using state resources for the war — we’re talking housing subsidies, fat paychecks for military recruits, you name it. It’s a never-ending list. But here’s the kicker: when it comes to having a professional army to get the job done in Ukraine, he just can’t seem to hit the mark.

You cannot build an army on the go.

The first comment was from , John Kirby, U.S. National Security Council spokesman.

“Since October 11, Russia has suffered significant losses during the attempted offensive, including at least 125 armored vehicles around Avdiivka and more than a battalion’s worth of military equipment. We have information that the Russian military has actually executed soldiers who refused to obey orders. We also have information about the fact that Russian commanders threaten to shoot entire units if they try to retreat under Ukrainian artillery fire.”

“It’s reprehensible to think … that you would execute your own soldiers because they didn’t want to follow orders,” Kirby said. “And now threatening to execute entire units. It’s barbaric.”

The second one was from the Institute of Study of War:

  • An amendment to the Russian citizenship law allowing for the revocation of naturalized Russian citizenship came into force on October 26, providing the Russian government with a new mechanism to coerce migrants into Russian military service.
  • The amendment most notably allows Russian authorities to revoke Russian citizenship from naturalized citizens who are convicted of discrediting the Russian military and of committing “certain crimes encroaching on public and personal safety” regardless of when the crime was committed, the date of sentencing, or for how long the convicted has held Russian citizenship.
  • Russian authorities have recently increased raids against migrants accused of committing crimes to deliver summonses and impress migrants into signing military contracts.

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Shankar Narayan

Lov stats and hate status-quo. Forecasted all the states Biden won in 2020. Correctly forecasted the twin Georgia elections in 2021, House and Senate in 2022.