Russia is committing military suicide

Little Too Weak, a Little Too late

Shankar Narayan

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Image by Vecteezy

Morale controls momentum.

Momentum can either take you higher or bury you down under. That’s why it is harder to break a losing streak than a winning streak. When you are down and out, it just becomes so hard to get out.

Despite the Russia-Ukraine war ravaging their homeland for 64 days, Ukrainian morale is much higher than that of the Russians. The reduction in scale and scope of the Russian objectives in Ukraine should have helped the Russians mount a strong response.

But things have slowly moved in the opposite direction. Ukraine may have already thwarted Russian plans. It appears that Putin will lose his war in eastern Ukraine. He must decide whether to suffer a humiliating loss, a big loss, or a small loss.

Two weeks is an eternity in the theatre of war

The departure of Russia from the Kyiv axis should have allowed them to focus their firepower. Even though both sides are still fighting in the south, the Russian focus on eastern Ukraine has drawn a strong response from Ukraine along the eastern axis.

The following images illustrate the Russian advance in eastern Ukraine over a 14-day period.

Image Source: ISW

Can you tell the difference?

This is exactly the problem I am trying to point out. You could be straining your eyes and comparing the two images back and forth to understand where exactly the Russians have advanced.

Kharkiv is still free. Zaporizhia and Dnipro are also free. Ukraine did not break Russian lines either. But they remain fluid, decentralized, and continue to attack Russian troops at multiple points. Russia has barely made any progress in the past two weeks.

Two reasons could have led to this

Either the Ukrainian counterattacks are so fierce or the Russians are still struggling with logistics.

Regardless of the reason, it doesn’t bode well for the Russians since they have…

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Shankar Narayan

Lov stats and hate status-quo. Forecasted all the states Biden won in 2020. Correctly forecasted the twin Georgia elections in 2021, House and Senate in 2022.