Russia Keeps Bringing their Radars. Ukraine Keeps Destroying them.
Second $100 million NEBO-SVU radar gets hit in 2024
For a brief moment, it felt like Ukraine was responding in kind to the successive hits the Russian army had delivered to their forward airbases over the last three days. This impression arose because the operational methodologies of the attacks were the same.
Both Russia and Ukraine possess advanced drone reconnaissance capabilities. They send their drones into enemy territory, surveil their targets, relay the information to the relevant command centers, and then launch missiles at the targets. Russia may have destroyed Ukrainian air force assets, while Ukraine may have destroyed a very expensive radar set operating in southern Ukraine.
However, I don’t think getting back at the Russians for their attacks on airfields was the primary objective of Ukrainian commanders. Ukraine has been conducting a concerted campaign against Russian ground communication and radar systems in occupied territories as well as within Russia. When the distance is too great, they use their long-range drones. When closer, they deploy their ATACMS missiles.
Yesterday, Ukraine destroyed Russia’s $100 million NEBO-SVU radar in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s southern operational command said:
“Shark” UAV flew almost 100 km to the rear of the enemy and corrected the HIMARS missile strike on the rare russian radar system “Nebo-SVU”.
They did not specify the exact location of the radar. Some Ukrainian military bloggers indicated that this radar was operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, south of Tokmak. These radars have a range of +380 kilometers and, as a result, relay a significant amount of sensitive data about Ukrainian forces to the Russian armed forces and aviators.
This is the first NEBO-SVU radar that has been hit in the occupied territory. In the last week of April 2024, Ukraine destroyed a NEBO-SVU radar stationed in Russia’s Bryansk region, which lies to the north.
The first documented hit on a NEBO-SVU radar complex occurred in April 2023. They did it again in April 2024, and now we have the latest hit in July 2024.
Russia keeps deploying these $100 million systems, and Ukraine keeps destroying them. Russia does not have many such systems, and they are prohibitively expensive to build, especially in the middle of the war, given the current state of the Russian economy.
Every single loss is significant and will be felt by both the Russian air force and their ground forces, which rely on these radars to monitor Ukrainian movements.
Why is this important for Ukraine?
There are multiple reasons why so many of the Russian air-defense systems are failing against ATACMS missiles. The Russian S-400 and S-300 systems were primarily designed to target aircraft, not missiles. However, they do possess the inherent capability to intercept fast-moving targets in the air.
During the recent ATACMS attack near the Kerch Strait, where ATACMS cluster munitions fell near the shores in Crimea, the Kremlin launched a massive propaganda campaign, accusing the United States of supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine. In this incident, the ATACMS missile deviated as it was countered by a Russian air-defense missile.
How did that happen?
I believe it was because the Kerch Strait is one of the most densely protected areas, with strong air defense coverage. This includes various types of radars and other systems designed to monitor Ukrainian missiles and aircraft.
When there is a lack of air coverage, it makes the job of ATACMS missiles easier in targeting their objectives. However, when there is strong coverage, Russia does have the capability to resist ATACMS missiles. The extent of their success is questionable, but it is unlikely to be zero.
This ability to resist these attacks can only be diminished if Russia loses its capability to monitor activities inside Ukraine. This is why taking out these hard-to-replace radars is extremely important for Ukraine. The cost of these radars is relevant only from the standpoint that these systems cannot be easily rebuilt. The value these systems offer to the Russian army far exceeds their $100 million price tag.
Another problem for the Russians is their lack of suitable suppliers. Iran and North Korea do not possess the required technology. China has such systems but will not provide them, as this would jeopardize their trade relationships with Europe, their largest trading partner. While China may offer some support to Russia, it will remain within the grey zone. Thus, Russia has no external access to these advanced systems.
The next factor to note here: Ukraine is set to recieve two Saab 340, early warning aircraft from Sweden.
These systems “will provide with a new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. Ukraine’s capability to identify targets at long range will be strengthened. They will act as a force multiplier with the introduction of F-16. AMRAAMs will also be donated, ” wrote Pål Jonson, Defense Minister of Sweden.
Ukraine’s ability to monitor Russian activities is on the rise, while Russia’s ability to monitor Ukraine is being crippled. This is not a settled matter yet, as Russia will continue deploying whatever resources it has left to the war zone. However, as long as Ukraine has ATACMS missiles, it can severely impair Russia’s monitoring capabilities.
Russia is already running low on tanks and armored vehicles, and this lack of mobility is causing heavy casualties among Russian ground forces. Russia is now starting to deplete its high-end radar systems, which are crucial for air defense. The inability to monitor effectively is weakening Russia’s air defense coverage, and if this trend continues, it will soon have a significant impact on the Russian air force.
I don’t see how the Kremlin will be able to protect their high-end radar complexes.
They can’t.
I still remember the day when a pundit claimed that the ATACMS wouldn’t be a game changer on the battlefield. He was right — they aren’t just game changers; they should be called war changers. As long as Ukraine has ATACMS missiles, not a single Russian radar complex in occupied territory will be safe.
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