Russia will not risk it all at Kupiansk
They will not be able to repeat their Avdiivka strategy
In today’s assessment from ISW, they reported “no changes to the frontline” in sector after sector. The situation was nearly the same in the Kupiansk sector as well; the Russians attempted to advance but were repelled.
However, there was something different.
Russia has massed its troops in the sector: “Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 18 that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces, operating in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction, consists of a maximum of 80,000 personnel”.
What is going on in Kupiansk?
It has been this way for a very, very long time. Russia has never ceased its attacks on this sector, as advancing closer to Kharkiv remains an extremely important objective for Putin’s imperialist fantasy.
If Ukraine remains in control of Kupiansk, the next time Russia invades Ukraine, the ability to capture Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, will be very difficult.
You cannot lay siege to a town with the enemy behind.
But, if Russia holds Kupiansk, they will be able to immediately surround Kharkhiv in all four directions. The fall of the city is almost guaranteed the moment it is surrounded in all directions.
Avdiivka never held significant strategic value; it was merely a Ukrainian stronghold that stood firm for an extended period. However, capturing this stronghold held immense informational significance for Russia. It has been nearly a month since the Russians gained control of Avdiivka. What has changed? Not much. They continue to strive to advance beyond Avdiivka, but face challenges as the open terrain does not align with Russia’s strategy centered around mass infantry and artillery.
But Kupiansk tells a completely different story. Losing it would put Ukraine in a difficult position to protect the 1.4 million people residing in Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city. If Kharkiv falls, Russia would take a significant stride toward eradicating Ukraine’s identity.
Remember French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on Odessa as a key region that must be protected at all costs. The reason becomes apparent in the image above. The Russians have their sights set on both Kharkiv and Odessa. If they fail this time, they will aim to position themselves for success in the future. Should Ukrainian defenses falter this year, Russia’s top priority will be seizing control of Kupiansk and pushing onward towards Kharkhiv.
Their aim is to systematically take control Ukraine’s most populous centers, one by one.
Ukraine has no alternative but to dig in around Kupiansk, and they have indeed done so. Ukrainian field fortifications have proliferated in the sector at a density much greater than what is typically observed on the frontline.
The primary reason Russia will encounter difficulties lies in the seven-kilometer gap between their current position and Kupiansk. This area consists of open terrain, affording Ukraine the mobility required to counter advancing Russian troops effectively.
Russian airforce also does not have a lot of space to operate. Ukraine’s air defense coverage over Kharkiv will extend its cover over Kupiansk area as well. While this doesn’t entirely eliminate the threat, it significantly hampers the possibility of daily, relentless Russian fighter jet bombing runs we witnessed in Avdiivka.
The Russian air force lacks a clearly identifiable pocket to deploy glide bombs. Whenever air superiority is contested, advancing on the battlefield becomes exceedingly challenging.
Ukraine’s Predicament:
We still do not know the exact condition of the shells in their stockpile. The Czech-led initiative to purchase artillery shells has raised enough money to buy 1.5 million artillery shells.
But when will they be delivered?
That is the most dreaded question for which we will never receive an answer. We shouldn’t seek that answer. We should only know when the Russians feel the heat.
Let us assume these shells are from South Africa and South Korea. Without payment, no one is going to send their ammunition. The option to pay later does not exist in the arms industry. A cargo ship will take two to three weeks to reach Spain from South Africa. From there, you transport them by train to Poland, and from there they are transported by trucks. So, I am guessing eight weeks is a reasonable timeline.
Since the ammunition is on its way, Eastern European nations can offer their stock to Ukraine and replenish it from the incoming shipment. So, there are workarounds. However, it is very difficult to determine exactly how much ammunition Ukraine currently possesses.
Russia is most probably in the same boat as we are. They do not know the current size of Ukraine’s ammunition stockpile. They have massed their troops around Kupiansk, and Ukraine will go into a frenzy if Russia attempts to send its troops towards Kupiansk in large numbers. Russians will never know if Ukraine is using its stored shells or if they are firing from new batches.
As a result, they will be extremely wary of the risk. This is why I do not expect Russia to mount an all-out assault on Kupiansk, similar to the one we witnessed in Avdiivka. They will opt for a grinding advance, a slow progression, testing the response before advancing further.
While discussing the importance of Kupiansk on February 1, I wrote,
“The uncertainty lies in the toll they might have to bear for this defense. The cost, whether in terms of resources, casualties, or strategic concessions, might be huge as the situation unfolds”.
The assessment I made last month was based on Ukraine having no visibility into the ammunition supply calendar. That has changed now. They are no longer uncertain.
They know what is coming and when it will arrive. They can plan accordingly and respond with confidence. This advantage is worth more than the advantage of the terrain.
I am not as worried about Kupiansk today as I was on February 1st.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
