Russian Army May Be Hunting for F-16s: Do They Know Something We Don’t?
Interesting..
Back-to-back hits on Ukrainian airfields have raised my concerns.
On Tuesday, Russians fired two missiles into Myrhorod airbase. Then on Wednesday, the Russian army targeted the Ukrainian airfield at Poltava, which is not far from Myrhorod airbase. Both airbases are located in Poltava Oblast, Ukraine.
Poltava Oblast is an extremely important area for the Ukrainian air force. It is not too close to the border and not too far from the front line. As a result, the airfields in this oblast will continue to play a major role in Ukrainian air force operations.
The outcome of these twin attacks is being furiously disputed by both sides. Ukraine does not deny these Russian attacks, but they have kept silent about the extent of the damage. Let us stay out of the results for a bit and analyze what is going on, why this is happening, and what can be done to stop this from happening.
Russia has reconnaissance drones that can reach far into Ukraine
On both occasions, Russia’s defense ministry released footage of the attack. Open-source investigators confirmed that the locations hit were indeed the ones the Russian army claimed.
Russians have always been on the lookout for Ukrainian jets and helicopters. However, until this week, there was no video evidence of the Russian army targeting Ukrainian airbases. Now, we have evidence.
Russians are sending their drones into Ukraine on reconnaissance missions, taking videos to confirm that the locations have high-value targets, sending the details back to the Kremlin, and then launching the Iskander missiles. These Iskander missiles are now being accompanied by missiles that can drop cluster munitions.
Cluster munitions are ideal for targeting airfields where the assets are dispersed over a small area.
We must consider two factors here:
1. Russians have built reconnaissance drones that can reach deeper into Ukrainian territory. They did not have this ability before. If they had these types of drones earlier, they would have targeted these airfields with Iskander missiles or cluster munitions a long time ago. This is happening now because they have enhanced their reconnaissance capabilities and improved their ability to quickly react to information.
2. These airfields, as we can see through the videos, still do not have protective shelters. It is possible that Ukraine is not planning to deploy the F-16s at these bases. However, this does not excuse the lack of proper shelters to protect high-value assets of the Ukrainian air force.
The biggest problem I see, more than the lack of shelters, is that Ukraine still lacks SHORAD (short-range air defense) systems to protect their airfields. The German-made GEPARD, an anti-aircraft gun, is widely used by the Ukrainian army to knock out drones and other low-altitude threats. There are many different types of anti-drone weapons, and if anyone understands their value, it is Ukraine. They are leading the world in drone evolution.
These anti-drone weapons must be augmented with electronic warfare systems that can detect the presence of drones in the area and bring them down by jamming their communication and satellite navigation systems.
TheEagleShield suite, manufactured by the French defense major, Thales, is one example of a Western C-UAS (Counter-Unmanned Aerial System) solution designed to combat drones. It is an integrated suite of sensors and effectors that work together to detect, track, identify, and neutralize enemy drones.
The West has the systems Ukraine needs. They can turn the sky above Ukrainian airbases a hostile zone for Russian drones.
Every air base in Ukraine must have specialized teams fully equipped to handle the drone threat. Ukraine cannot allow the Russian army to conduct successful reconnaissance missions.
As I said earlier, I don’t think the Russians had this drone capability for deep reconnaissance before, but they do now, and we have proof. The Russians have taken a step forward, and the back-to-back attacks this week make me believe the Russian army thinks the F-16s are already in Ukraine. They probably kept this capability a secret, planning to introduce it on the battlefield as a surprise element after the arrival of the F-16s.
The bad news is Ukraine has a capability gap. The good news is the West has the weapons for this job, and Ukraine has the troop capacity to set aside soldiers for protecting the airfields.
This gap is something that can be fixed in short order.
Russians have also failed to take out the F-16s. I believe their assumption that Ukraine will deploy its F-16s at such a forward location is wishful thinking.
I am almost certain that Ukraine will keep the F-16s far behind the front line, as deep as possible within their territory. There are secure locations where they can be kept and used primarily as defensive weapons to take out Russian missiles. That is where they will start. After fulfilling this defensive role for a while, Ukraine can then expand the role of the F-16s to create strong designated kill zones for Russian fighter jets. After executing both these roles, the F-16s can then move forward and be used to deliver their payloads over the front line.
It is a step-by-step process that will take some time to develop. However, the way the Russian army exposed its critical capability to the entire world makes me think that the F-16s are already in Ukraine.
There is also an additional benefit that the Russians have gained from these attacks. They have communicated to Ukraine that these two forward airbases are not safe for their F-16s, pushing the F-16s deeper into Ukraine for now.
What Should Ukraine Do About Their Forward Bases?
Ukraine needs to act swiftly and decisively. There is a gap in their defenses that the Russian army is fully exploiting. Ukraine has no choice but to respond.
In the past, Ukraine may have managed without shelters by constantly changing the locations where they parked their air force assets. This might have led them to believe that building shelters was unnecessary, as it would reveal the preferred sheltered airfields to the Russians. With fewer than 50 jets, this strategy may have made sense in 2023, but it does not anymore.
Ukraine is set to receive high-end systems, and the quantity will only increase over time. The arrival of these systems will heighten the pressure on all airfields, runways, and any other locations where Ukrainian jets and helicopters are parked.
Shelters must be built. There is no escaping that. I hope Ukraine starts building them right away.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 200 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
