Russian Defense of Kursk Has Collapsed
The blitzkrieg yields unexpected results for Ukraine
Fortune favors the brave.
Oh yes, it does.
During one of my discussions with reader Mr. Rottersman, I told him that Ukraine should base its actions on the Russian response:
“The way Russians responded makes me think their reserve strength is already at a weakened state. If I were commander syrski, I will take this attack by the day. Send more units to the sector, watch what the Russians are doing, and decide to either escalate or escape. I will have the troops ready to move, pull it from somewhere. I will risk the older line. I do have one or two sectors in mind, but cant say it here. But you get the picture. Move troops to this spot, take it by the day.
I will also move airdefense units into range”.
I have a spotty record of predicting Ukrainian moves. I am good at predicting what the Russians will do, but I am not yet where I want to be with Ukrainians. They always surprise me.
But this time, I got it right.
Ukraine has chosen to pile it on.
It has been almost 72 hours since Ukraine crossed the Russian border at Kursk Oblast. Ukraine has had the time to move some of its strongest and most maneuverable brigades to the front, with the 80th Air Assault Brigade leading the charge, supported by the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 88th Mechanized Brigade. The 54th Recon Battalion is also in the area.
Additionally, a group of drone operators from the 14th Regiment is operating in the area. I have no idea about their size. I am going to keep calling them as a group.
Add em all up.
- An elite equipped brigade.
- Two mechanized brigades +
- A recon battlion +
- A drone group +
- The absence of a strong response from the Russian air force indicates that the Ukrainians have moved their air-defense units into range.
- =?
Lean, lethal, and mobile (high speed), this small, tactical force can move extremely quickly and perform all the functions needed for the current battlefield conditions.
This is maneuver warfare, utilizing all the advantages offered by combined arms. It is a travesty that Ukraine cannot utilize its air force, as it would produce devastating results. However, given the way the Russians have responded, the Ukrainian ground forces moving at an alarming speed are not going to miss the airforce much.
Despite the rapid pace of the Ukrainian advance, the Kremlin has not yet relocated its brigades to counter the Ukrainian forces running amok in their territory.
Sometime yesterday, the highly critical Lgov-Belgorod railway, a crucial supply route for Russia’s northern grouping forces operating in the direction of Kharkiv, fell into Ukrainian hands.
For a long time, whenever Ukraine launches a counterattack, they always use the terrain as a critical component of their defense. This was the case when they advanced in the Kharkiv and Kherson sectors in 2022. That strategy has not changed.
To the left of their advance, they are utilizing the Snagost River.
To the right of their advance, Ukrainians have the Psel river.
Another river, the Leshnya River, runs through the middle of the Ukrainian advance. Ukraine has progressed with all these rivers in mind and has already closed some gaps. There is still some ground left to cover between their frontline position on the right flank and the Psel River, but the pace of the Ukrainian advance is challenging for map makers to update.
It is possible they already have the Psel River on their right. As you can see on the right flank, the Psel River runs all the way from the Russian town of Sudza to the Ukrainian border. If Ukraine occupies this section, it will become extremely difficult to evict them. Ukraine doesn’t even need to dig and establish fortifications to defend their positions; they already have a natural barrier.
The way Ukrainian forces have moved makes me wonder if they are improvising their response on the go or if this counterattack has been in the works for a very long time. But it does not matter anymore. They are in, and they are using the terrain to establish a defensible position.
Once the Ukrainian forces reach the banks of these rivers, they are probably going to stay within its limits and may continue advancing along the banks. How far will they go? I have no idea. But they seem to be prepared, and the fact that the Russians have yet to mobilize a response keeps plenty of options on Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrski’s table.
Will Ukraine Try to Capture the Nuclear Power Plant?
It makes very little sense to me. Such a move would only expose Ukrainian troops by stretching them too far from their border, causing them to lose the advantage of the terrain. The risks far outweigh the benefits of taking over the plant, making it an unnecessary action.
Did Ukraine Advance into Kursk Oblast to Take Control of the Gas Metering Station?
This is a narrative promoted by many Russian military bloggers. Russian gas is still flowing through Ukraine, and any disruption would clearly identify the culprit. Ukraine has no reason to complicate matters for itself by disrupting the gas supply. The gas metering station happened to be in their path, so they took control of it, but they are not going to stop the gas supply.
What Will Be Russia’s Next Move?
This is a significant setback for the Kremlin. Their weakness has been brutally exposed to the entire world and to Russian citizens. They have no choice but to move their troops, which will weaken their northeast grouping. If Ukraine stays put inside Russian territory, it will stretch the entire Russian front, weakening their ability to stay on the offensive.
For years, the Western world complained that Ukraine wasn’t winning, that the war had reached a stalemate, and that nothing could be done. Some critics said Ukraine wasn’t taking any risks. Now, they have taken a bold step and created a significant opening. Yes, there is risk involved; there always is. Continuing the same strategy indefinitely is also a risk, as it jeopardizes Western support for Ukraine. How long can the West support Ukraine if the war drags on year after year? Putin is counting on this fatigue to bring the Western world to the negotiation table.
The dwindling stockpile of heavy weapons and dire economic conditions make this an increasing possibility. In my opinion, Putin is preparing to call for a ceasefire. If he does this a month before the United States presidential election, it has the potential to impact the election.
If we are indeed headed to the negotiation table, it is better for Ukraine to have control over a small amount of Russian territory to strengthen their position.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 224 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
