Russian military bloggers think Pokrovsk is a trap. It can very well be one.
Where are the Ukrainian reserves?
Have you noticed how the Russian armed forces have advanced towards Pokrovsk?
Ukraine has now surrounded the advancing Russian army from three directions. The Russians have deployed a significant number of troops in the sector, while the primary complaint from the Ukrainian forces in recent weeks has been a lack of ammunition and weapons to counter the Russian advance in the sector.
As Ukraine advanced into Kursk, deploying six well-equipped frontline brigades supported by engineering, artillery, UAV, air defense, and electronic warfare units, the forces defending the Pokrovsk direction were left to manage the situation with whatever resources they were sent. Often, those supplies were insufficient to hold back the Russians.
Reports indicate that the Russians have gained nearly 1,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since the start of this year, while Ukraine has captured almost twice that amount of Russian territory in just five weeks. However, the pace of the Ukrainian advance in Kursk has slowed remarkably in the past week. I expect the Ukrainian advance in Kursk to come to a standstill over the next few weeks as both sides slug it out to find the equilibrium.
The type of units Russia has sent to Kursk — mostly degraded forces, including some from Kaliningrad and a few elite assault units — clearly shows that the Russians lack sufficient reserves. They have decided not to redeploy their assault troops from the Pokrovsk direction.
Under these conditions, if Ukraine lacks reserves, they could indeed face significant challenges. However, the likelihood of that is low.
- Between Russia and Ukraine, it is the latter that has issued a mobilization order to recruit soldiers.
- Ukraine also suffers significantly fewer casualties on the frontlines compared to Russia.
- Since April, Russian forces have been losing more than 1,000 soldiers daily, a number that has not decreased.
Ukraine has uncommitted brigades, and more are being formed every month. Russian military bloggers are concerned that, after stabilizing the Kursk frontline, Ukraine will deploy these newly equipped brigades wherever they choose.
“We know that the Ukrainian armed forces still have several reasonably intact and well-equipped units in reserve, about five brigades,” one Russian military blogger wrote.
These brigades can be sent to Pokrovsk or to another part of the frontline. The five brigades that Russian military bloggers are discussing are likely what Ukraine has at its disposal today.
Putin and his allies are hoping every day that the Biden-Sullivan team will act in their favor by slow walking weapons supply to Ukraine. If, on the contrary, the United States sends a substantial amount of equipment and ammunition, Ukraine could easily bring more brigades to the front.
Where they will send them is a question that no one outside Ukraine can predict. From what I’ve observed, Ukraine is still refusing to commit these new units to the front.
What is happening in Pokrovsk?
It’s not just Pokrovsk; the Russians have also advanced closer to the Ukrainian fortress in Vuhledar. The entire Donetsk region remains tense, but Ukraine is slowly ramping up its response to the Russian advance.
Yesterday, or sometime within the last week, Ukraine moved the Kara-Dag Brigade towards the Pokrovsk direction. This brigade was previously stationed in southern Ukraine, so this is a redeployment, not a new infusion of troops. However, the Kara-Dag Brigade is well-equipped, consisting of an estimated 2,000 troops and heavy weapons.
Although many people continue to write alarming reports and question Ukraine’s wisdom in entering Kursk, I’m not convinced by their assessments.
Consider the width of the Russian-occupied territory in the Pokrovsk direction.
The width of the Russian-occupied territory is just 30 kilometers from one end to the other. Russia has a significant number of brigades inside this pocket — atleast 10,000 to 20,000 troops — operating within this small section, which is under Ukraine’s fire control. If Ukraine adds more brigades and brings in artillery, electronic warfare units to assist with deploying first-person view drones, everything within that small section could be effectively targeted.
The key to successfully turning this section into a trap is the amount of weapons Ukraine has — nothing else. Ukraine has the manpower required to mount such an operation without withdrawing forces from Kursk. All they need is weapons.
However, there is still uncertainty about this, and the United States could provide sub-par assistance. They need to quickly decide whom they really want to protect. It’s either Putin’s regime or Ukraine. They want to support both, but unfortunately, they lack the goodwill or trust from Europe to make that choice.
“The problem is not the supposed lack of strategy in Ukraine; Ukraine knows what to do. The problem is the lack of funds and the absence of weapons. And there are also idiotic restrictions that I don’t understand,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
Idiotic indeed. It’s astonishing, isn’t it? The entire world knows whose policy he is criticizing. That’s how far the United States has diminished itself. But regardless, the current administration made its choice, and they will have to live with it for the rest of their lives.
Will Ukraine stop the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk?
I don’t know.
Why not let the Russians enter an urban battle and then Ukraine launch a counterattack?
There are still ten kilometers before the Russians can reach the town. Perhaps by the end of this month, if Ukraine keeps the lines weak. They could allow the Russians to engage in a pitched battle inside the town. Wait until the Russian forces get bogged down, and then launch a counterattack at the neck of the advance.
The option I discussed above is just one of many.
Here is another one:
Why not allow the Russians to keep advancing towards Pokrovsk, keep them under pressure, and draw in a significant number of their troops to that sector, then launch a massive counterattack somewhere else? Both sides have already redeployed troops from southern Ukraine.
So why not launch an assault with ten or fifteen brigades in southern Ukraine? Of course, that sector isn’t ideal for rapid advances, but we’ve seen repeatedly — in November 2022 and in August 2024 — how the Russian army reacts as soon as they hear that Ukrainian troops have reached their rear. The famous Chechen Akhmat unit, deployed to shoot anyone who withdraws from frontline combat, ran for the hills in Kursk. They gave up fighting. That is how you win a war. By making the enemy give up his resistance. On his own.
Chaos can lead to many unpredictable outcomes.
This is how I see the situation. From a tactical standpoint, I see advantages to what Ukraine is doing. Their main weakness is the supply situation. We don’t know if Ukraine has the weapons it needs for such a plan. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, or maybe they’re hoping they’ll get them. I have no idea.
But to describe the situation in Donetsk Oblast as alarming without considering all these factors is misguided. Ukraine still holds many aces. Let’s hope Europe can figure out the best way to support Ukraine over the next three months. That might be just enough.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 265 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
