Russian Military Struggles to Recruit

Putin Is Resorting to Hail Mary Tactics

From the time Vladimir Putin’s army invaded Ukraine, a major talking point that caused me significant heartburn was the claim pushed by mainstream media and Putin supporters in the Western world that Russia had unlimited manpower, suggesting that Ukraine would never be able to win the war.

That is utter nonsense.

The perception they promoted was that, with a population of 146 million, Russia could keep recruiting millions of soldiers and sustain a never-ending war.

Yeah, right. Who is supposed to feed those 146 million people? Who is supposed to generate income, run the country, and supply the millions fighting a perpetual war? Forget Russia — there is no country on earth that can sustain a never-ending war. Perhaps on a limited scale, but waging a protracted war with half a million troops for years is beyond even the capabilities of the Roman Empire at its peak.

Russia had a $2.2 trillion economy before the war, with a population of 146 million people. In comparison, California’s GDP was $3.3 trillion in 2023, despite having only 39 million residents.

The assumption that Russia can afford to mobilize a large number of civilians to sustain the war against Ukraine has two critical flaws:

It did not account…

1. The impact manpower drawdown will have on the Russian economy.
2. The level of interest average Russians will have in fighting Putin’s war.

The second factor became glaringly obvious after more than a million Russians fled the country following Putin’s partial mobilization order in September 2022. That incident must have instilled so much fear in Putin that, to this day, he is reluctant to order a full-scale mobilization. Instead, it is being handled quietly.

It seems that even this effort is beginning to encounter obstacles. The Kremlin is struggling to find new recruits to fight in Ukraine. On July 31st, Putin increased the upfront payment for newly drafted Russian soldiers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled upfront payments for volunteers to fight in Ukraine on Wednesday, a move aimed at facilitating military recruitment but likely to create imbalances in the overheated economy.

All Russians who sign a contract with the army will now receive an upfront payment of 400,000 roubles ($4,651). The decree also recommends that regional authorities match this payment from their budgets with at least the same amount. — Reuters

Minimum annual wage has also been increased from 2.44 million rubles to 3.25 million rubles.

I can almost hear Russia’s central bank chief, Elvira Nabiullina, screaming “Nooooo!” at the top of her lungs. Just a few days before Putin increased one-time payments and annual wages for new recruits, the Russian central bank raised interest rates to a staggering 18%. The central bank chief had warned that Russia is facing stagnation or a deep recession.

If the situation is so dire, why did Putin raise wages for new military recruits?

There can only be one reason: The Russian military is struggling to find people to enlist. The signing bonus now stands at nearly $5,000.

According to “Sberindex in 2020, the median salary for all industries in Russia amounted to 31,540 rubles or $500 per month”. Putin has now perched the one time upfront payment at ten times the average salary.

He is targeting Russians who earn below the average salary, those who are economically struggling. He is enticing them with money, risking further strain on the economy. There is no way he would have done this unless the Russian armed forces were struggling to recruit troops.

This struggle is likely to increase, as the Russians have lost more than 1,000 soldiers every day over the last three months. Despite such heavy losses, they have been unable to advance and achieve their objectives of reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and creating a buffer zone in the northeast.

Screenshot from UK Ministry of defense video

A casualty rate of 1,262 per day is where the equilibrium is at the moment. If it drops, that would mean Russia is in full defense mode.

One by one the chips are falling around Putin

1. Putin’s army is running out of tanks and armored vehicles. Western think tanks have finally started to confirm this development. They agree that Russia’s weapons stockpile is not unlimited; it is a finite pool and is nearing depletion. Last year, experts projected Russian weapons could last until 2026. Now, they are predicting it could be depleted by mid-2025. If Ukraine receives the right weapons, this timeline could be pushed even forward.
2. The Russian Central Bank has warned of a deep recession. They have also stated that moving money from savings to spending will only exacerbate inflation, which is threatening to breach double digits.
3. The Russian army is struggling to find new recruits. Putin is unlikely to increase upfront payments for new recruits after telling the head of the Russian Accounts Chamber that there is no money and it is necessary to stay disciplined with finances.
4. Ukraine is still nowhere near its full combat potential, while Russia has already passed its peak.

I find no logical reason for this war to stretch deep into 2025. There is a very simple way to end it: ramp up the weapons supply to Ukraine while tightening sanctions around the Kremlin.

What worries me now is not the Kremlin, but the group of men in suits in the Western world who do not want Putin to lose. They don’t want him to win either, but they are unwilling to envision a Russia without Vladimir Putin. It would be a travesty if these individuals began to undermine Ukraine’s rising combat power by manipulating events behind the scenes.

Now more than ever, it’s crucial to keep the spotlight firmly on the men in suits. I think I need to ramp up my coverage on Western supply of weapons to Ukraine.

Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 220 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.