Russian Offensive has Stalled
The tide is turning
Nearly two months have passed since the United States restarted its Ukraine aid packages, followed by significant contributions from the United Kingdom, Germany, and several other allies. Weapons are still flowing in, and more than ten Ukrainian brigades are waiting for equipment.
Of course, this is not magic. You cannot wave a wand and equip everything and everyone in one go. Statements come first, followed by planning, execution, and navigating a long list of bureaucratic hurdles. A few months ago, we were close to zero deliveries. From there, we moved up a few notches, and then a few more.
The tank is slowly getting filled, probably somewhere between half full and three-quarters full. But even at this stage, it is starting to show results on the frontlines. The impact is finally becoming evident.
Sourthern Ukraine
Running from Kherson City on one end, all the way to Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, southern Ukraine is where the Russian armed forces are well entrenched. One half of the territory is protected by the Dnipro River and the other half by continuous defensive lines constructed by the Russians. The lines in this sector have barely moved for more than a year.
This sector continues to remain in trench warfare mode. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has the ability to advance. It is a stalemate and will continue to remain so. Ukraine’s best bet to break the Russian lines in this sector is to weaken the Russian forces overall and then use that weakness to create a breach. It will be a long waiting game.
The Mid-Section
This is where the Russians are extremely active: the area starting at Avdiivka and running all the way to Chasiv Yar in the Bakhmut sector.
The idea was simple: hold the south while pushing forward in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Ukraine would be forced to defend and find it hard to attack the Russians in southern Ukraine.
The strategy has indeed worked well for the Russians, but it worked because Ukraine was undermanned and underequipped. Since this is the area where Russia wanted to score its wins, this is also where we need to look for any evidence of a change in tide.
As you can see from the image above, the one sector where the Russians have managed to advance since February this year has slowed to a crawl in July. If I hadn’t circled the advance in the image on the right, I bet you would not have noticed the change.
Ukraine prioritized its counter-attack in the northeast, committing most of their resources there and leaving some space for the Russian momentum in Avdiivka to continue. However, that trend is finally coming to an end. Give it two more weeks, and my bet is that Avdiivka will come to a standstill.
Chasiv Yar is the next area where the Russian forces have been very active. They recently captured a small part of the town, as the Ukrainian forces retreated behind the Siverski Donets Canal that runs north-south of Chasiv Yar. The terrain is extremely difficult for Russia to break through, with only limited paths to enter Chasiv Yar and Ukraine deeply entrenched. This sector has already stalled. As a result, we can’t read much from the positional battles we will witness in this sector in the near term.
The NorthEast
Intense fighting continues to rage in the northeast. The Russians know they can’t quit, and the Ukrainians know that the Russians are finally defending without proper defensive lines. It is a packed sector, with both sides lining up as many resources as they possibly can to stop the other side from advancing. So far, the northeast has yielded lopsided results in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainians have been tactically brilliant. They ensured that the Russians did not take control of the Trav’yans’ke reservoir. Russian control of the reservoir would have made it extremely hard for Ukraine and would have cost them heavily. This was a potential problem, but one that Ukraine addressed immediately.
What Next for Russia?
As the offensive momentum of the Russian armed forces continues to lose energy across the frontline, further complicated by the monstrous losses suffered by the Kremlin’s forces in the northeast, I am warily watching the Russian response.
It is an extremely difficult situation. They simply cannot afford to keep losing inches of the frontline in the northeast. Since there are no reliable defensive fortifications in this sector, any loss of territory can only be recouped by sacrificing enormous amounts of resources.
It will suck things in like a vortex.
When the Russians jumped over the Ukrainian border in the northeast around May 10th, 2024, they had big plans. They had also positioned some of their troops further to the north of their advance in the Kharkiv sector, so there was a small possibility of making use of these troops.
Think about this for a moment. I already have ten to twenty thousand troops stationed in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts. Things are not going well for me near Belgorod-Vovchansk. I can either send these units into the same vortex that has been consuming everything I have been sending into this sector, or I can order these troops to cross the border near Sumy and distract Ukrainian troops at Vovchansk.
I think the Russians wanted to do this, but Ukraine anticipated this move and pre-empted it.
Ukraine has positioned its 33rd Separate Rifle Battalion, 54th Recon, 88th Mechanized, 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade, 49th Artillery Brigade, and even some elements of Ukraine’s intelligence directorate operating in the sector. Ukraine’s first-person view drone operators, as well as artillery units, remain heavily active in the sector. The red dots you see in the image attached above are visually confirmed hits on enemy positions.
So…
The Russians did want to open up another front, but Ukraine keeps denying them the ability to mass their forces in the sector. I wanted to note this down here because I have written on multiple occasions that Russia may attempt to open up another front.
They are trying.
It is simply not working.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 220 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
