Russian Refineries Hit for the third day in a Row
Where is Ukraine going with this?
For three days in a row, Ukrainian drones dropped in unannounced in oil refineries in Russia. The normally unpredictable Ukrainian forces did something utterly predictable. It was the refinery. It was the atmospheric distillation unit.
This morning, 6am local time, Russian oil refinery in Syzran, Samara region, was attacked by drones. On the video man mentions that “AVT-6 is done” and that “K-2 column is on fire” The capacity of the AVT-6 on the Syzran oil refinery is 6 million tons per year.
The Russians lacked any air defense to protect these crucial economic assets, leaving me puzzled. I’m not interested in any discussion that begins with the term ‘the Russians are stupid.’
The Russians were probably overconfident that Ukraine would not exert too much pressure on them in the oil sector, as it could affect the oil markets. As this would lead to volatility in oil prices, the may have assumed major Western powers would likely urge Ukraine to halt the attacks.
That push never came to shove because the United States, which has played a central role in constraining Ukraine’s actions, has been absent from the list of donors for quite some time. They took a break sometime in the second half of last year and have yet to get back to work.
The United States has lost control over Ukraine’s battlefield strategy. It really helps. It makes no sense to dictate strategy 4000 miles away from the frontline. It does not work. It will only cause confusion.
There is another factor that we need to take a closer look at: Where did the drones hit?
- Lukoil refinery, Nizhny Novgorod
- Rosneft refinery, Ryazan
- Rosneft refinery, Samara
At the end of the day, everything in Russia is owned by the Kremlin. However, operationally, these are either private properties run by Russian oligarchs or state-owned entities that function similarly to private properties. The deployment of air defense assets must be carried out by the Russian military. This is where I believe things went wrong.
A Russian commander in Crimea is not going to send his Pantsir-1 or any other air defense asset to take out Ukraine’s drones targeting refineries inside Russia. He is not going to leave his ammunition depots and other military assets exposed. He will have no interest whatsoever in making a Russian oligarch look good in front of the Czar.
It will be his job on the line.
I will do the same. I will tell the high command that I have nothing to spare and that I will lose the supply in my possession. I will tell them, Ukraine will hit and both of us will be in trouble.
Won’t you?
We all know that neither Ukraine nor Russia will ever have enough air defense systems. That’s how things will be when this war comes to an end: sparsely available but needed more than anything else.
If Russian military units in occupied territory give away their air defense systems, military assets will be hit. If oil facilities do not have air defense systems, then they will be hit. This is a good, smart plan by Ukraine that targets an incredible weakness on the Russian side. The Russians will never have a good solution to address this gap.
There are so many economic assets within the 1,000 km range from the Ukrainian border. But why does Ukraine keep targeting the refiners?
Products coming out of the refineries represent high-margin items in the oil production chain. Ukraine is targeting Russian products that generate higher profits for the Kremlin. Since Russia consumes a significant portion of the products produced by these refiners, any price impact will be felt by Russia first before it filters down to the global markets.
Russia, suffering from sharp inflation, has no choice but to cut down exports. This action will prompt refiners around the world to reactivate any idle capacity. Consequently, the supply side at the high end of the oil product chain will end up with more capacity. Russia will make efforts to repair the damaged refiners, but if Ukraine continues to disrupt, there is a strong likelihood that Russia’s high margin oil products in the global market may eventually be replaced by those of their competitors.
Ukraine is playing a very long game.
The West needs to examine Ukraine’s actions and encourage all capable refiners to step up and replace Russian products. Offer subsidies if necessary. If that cannot be achieved, provide them with a “Let’s Stop the War Machine” tax cut.
Russia’s double tap versus Ukraine’s drop in
The evil Russian military high command has a set strategy to inflict pain: they will fire a missile, wait for the first responders to arrive at the scene and help injured people, and then, after some time, they will fire another missile. I feel like forcing myself to puke. This is the team the billionaire subsidy king wants to win.
Ukraine has thousands of Russian critical infrastructure in the firing range of their drones. Schools. Hospitals. Apartment buildings. Gas stations. Power stations. Transformers. Theatres. Super Markets. Funeral gatherings and what not. Totally undefended. What kind of damage can 250 drones deliver to average Russians?
Absolute chaos is within the realm of possibility.
If Ukraine returns 10 percent of Russian evil back to the soil where it comes from, it will cause untold hurt to average Russians. Even after all the pain the Russians have caused Ukraine, even when the Kremlin and Russian military high command talks about erasing their identity, Ukraine still refuses to embrace the evil. Despite their anger. Despite their despair.
You should be proud to give them the Taurus long range missiles, Chancellor Scholz.
You should be proud.
Not fearful.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
