Momentum Broken: Russians Have Not Advanced Toward Pokrovsk for Six Days

They are trying. Trying hard.

In an interview with CNN, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksander Syrski, said that the Russian advance toward Pokrovsk has stalled.

Over the last 6 days the enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in the Pokrovsk direction. Our strategy is working.

It was either a bit of an exaggeration or Ukraine may have liberated some territory from Russia. However, the lines have looked fairly stable over the past week.

Ukraine has been gradually reinforcing the sector, sending at least two more brigades to the Pokrovsk front without pulling troops from the Kursk sector.

I recently wrote about the option to launch a large-scale, but fully localized, counterattack in the Pokrovsk direction, given that the width of the Russian advance is just 30 kilometers. Ukraine could move troops to the flanks and go for the kill. It’s an option, not a requirement. If such an attack aligns well with their operational plans for the entire theater, then yes, they should pursue it. If not, there’s no need.

How Ukraine will proceed from here remains to be seen. In my opinion, the Ukrainian advance into Kursk should remain the top priority. It has already yielded significant results for Ukraine.

According to President Zelensky, the Russians have moved nearly 60,000 troops to Kursk. The number of troops Russia continues to shift from the older frontline to Kursk is steadily increasing. From just one or two brigades, it has gradually ramped up. That, in itself, is a significant victory. The Russians have moved more than 10% of their forces from Ukraine back into Russia. Isn’t that what the entire world wants — to send Russian forces home?

Kursk has not only drawn in Russian manpower, but it’s also draining their ammunition. The rate of fire on the older frontline has also decreased.

“We’ve taken away their ability to maneuver and to deploy their reinforcement forces from other directions … and this weakening has definitely been felt in other areas. We note the amount of artillery shelling as well as the intensity of the offensive have decreased,” Syrski told CNN.

Russian military bloggers claim that Ukraine has at least five fully equipped brigades yet to be committed to the frontline. I believe this is an underestimate. The actual number depends on how quickly weapons and equipment are arriving from the western shores, and that number is likely to increase.

The real question is where to commit these brigades. It’s an extremely difficult balancing act. If too many resources are committed to the Pokrovsk direction or any part of the older frontline, what happens? You end up fighting the Russians on your own land. Therefore, the priority should be to send as many resources as possible to Kursk, expand the footprint there, draw more Russian forces to that area, weaken the Russian army’s force density on the older frontline, and allow the number of equipped but yet-to-be-committed Ukrainian brigades to grow. When the balance shifts in your favor, you can then launch a counterattack on the older frontline.

Russia will likely try the exact opposite strategy. They do not want to reinforce Kursk and will instead try to increase pressure on the pre-Kursk frontline. Ukraine needs to commit just enough resources to stall them. In fact, I am fairly comfortable with Ukraine losing territory on the older frontline, as long as they do not lose anything critical or too much. The goal should be to make the Russians expend as much combat power as possible for every meter they gain.

It’s a difficult dance. But dance you must.

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