Russians lost 400 troops in a single battle, setting the stage for Ukraine’s advance in Kursk.

The Kremlin asked for trouble, and Ukraine said, “Okay.”

It didn’t make much sense to me. Launching an expansive counter-attack in Kursk seemed premature. The Biden administration was still delivering billions of dollars in equipment, with transport flights landing in Poland at an unprecedented pace over the last few weeks. The administration stated these deliveries would continue until power transitioned to the Trump administration.

As of December 19th, the Biden administration still had $10 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding uncontracted with American manufacturers. Spooking an administration still sitting on a significant pile of cash seemed unwise. I didn’t want Ukraine expanding into Kursk at this stage. The final week of the Biden administration — perhaps two days before the transition — would have been a better timeline.

That said, I held back from jumping to conclusions when Ukraine counterattacked with a reasonable amount of force. I decided to wait for the fog of information to lift and to assess the ground situation.

Here is my take: Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kursk oblast is limited, with small, focused, and deliberate objectives. It…