Russians thought they could sneak into Chasiv Yar, but they got ambushed instead.

Why does trouble always come in twos?

On paper, it was not a bad plan at all. If plans were to work, every start-up in the world should have succeeded, isn’t it? But they seldom do. Because all the angles you look at, ponder over, the counter-measures you devise against failures, will look reasonable in the boardroom. But get to the ground and start executing, you will encounter things that you never anticipated. There are times when even the anticipated can hit you like a rock.

What is happening to Russia is the anticipated happening, but just not at the intensity and the ferocity that they planned for. Let us break this whole package down, layer by layer.

Why are the Russians pouring everything they have with little regard to a potential economic collapse?

The Kremlin is running out of Soviet-era weapons. They are also running out of savings. Two and a half years of war have sucked a lot of Russian resources. How can Putin seek a ceasefire and still retain his throne? They need a strong territorial win to convince the West to give up the fight. They have a very small window to get that done. They decided to bet the state to get this done.

What was the plan?

The basic plan was to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast, find a way to get there, arrive with momentum, wave the white flag, and then escape.

They still have a long distance to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast, but they decided to roll the dice. They picked the two red boxes you see above. Those were the two axes of the Russian advance: one through Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk, and the other through Bakhmut, passing through Chasiv Yar. Though they had tasted a decent amount of success in the Avddivka sector, they were stalled in Chasiv Yar.

They did learn a few things from the Ukrainians. Instead of advancing towards Chasiv Yar along a singular axis, they advanced along a wide area, giving them room to encircle the town from the north as well as the south. They were also advancing towards Klishchiivka, another location with dominant heights in the region. Russians captured Klishchiivka on May 22. The town is still contested, but Russians do have control of it as of today.

But as you can see from the last image, Russians are advancing at the rate of 1.7 kilometers per month. It is not going to cut it. So, someone higher up in the Kremlin food chain came up with the idea to open up another front in the northeast to draw the Ukrainian troops out of Chasiv Yar, stretching the Ukrainian troops and allowing for an advance towards Chasiv Yar.

Russians then faced another problem in Chasiv Yar. There is a Siverski Donets canal that runs north-south to the east of the town. This creates multiple chokepoints to enter the town: one path to the north of the town, one path to the middle of the town, and another one at the south. These are the only ways to enter.

Ukraine is manning all the three entrances to the town.

A few days ago, the Russians tried to sneak into the town by attacking the southern entrance, only to be duly ambushed by the waiting Ukrainian troops.

The Russian plan here was to cross the canal since this particular section goes underground, providing Russians with stable soil to cross over it. Afterward, the goal of the Russians was to establish positions in another forest to the west of the canal pipes.

During the assaults, Russians managed to cross the canal, enter the forest and establish positions close to the outskirts of Novi District. Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operators quickly mapped the Russian vectors of advancement, allowing Ukrainian Ground Forces to organize counterattacks.

Reports indicate that the Russians suffered huge losses before being fully evicted to the other side of the canal. To make life even more miserable for Kremlin’s planners, around 60 Russian soldiers surrendered to Ukrainian forces in Vochansk, one of the two axes of the Russian advance in the northeast.

Some 60 Russian soldiers were captured near the war-ravaged town of Vovchansk, where fierce battles are ongoing, Nazar Voloshin, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Khortytsia operational-strategic group told local publication Liga.net. Ukraine controls 70 percent of Vovchansk, which had a prewar population of 17,000.

Julian Röpcke, an open data analyst with the publication Bild, shared footage on X (formerly Twitter) that first circulated on Telegram, which purportedly shows the moment the Russian troops were captured.

Instead of stretching Ukrainian forces, it was the Russian forces that got stretched. Neither the Kharkiv front nor the Chasiv Yar front is moving. Russians are piling up colossal losses in both sectors.

I am actually not able to find fault with the Russian strategy. It did not work, but that does not mean it was a bad strategy. The terrain around Chasiv Yar, the canal, forced the Russian forces to try and encircle the town instead of making a pointed assault in a single direction. That was the only way to do it, and they attempted it.

However, they could not advance. So, they opened up another front, trying to stretch the Ukrainians. This also happened. Ukraine did move some troops from the Chasiv Yar sector to the northeast, but they quickly reinforced the troops in Chasiv Yar. The flow of ammunition from Western partners and recent mobilization efforts helped significantly.

Who is doing better: Ukraine or Russia

• May 17th compared to April 17th: Ukraine
• June 4th compared to May 17th: Ukraine

What can Russia do from here?

They are now caught in a trap of their own making. They underestimated the Ukrainian response and are now paying the price for it. The problem I see for them is that the situation is not the same as it was in November 2022 when they were able to spin the withdrawal from Kherson city as a tactical decision.

There are some trolls who keep telling me that it was such a benevolent decision by Russia to withdraw from Kherson city. That Russians gave up to save lives, or whatever spin the Kremlin wanted them to spread. Anyways, the Kremlin was able to spin that loss because at that point they did not care about Western perception of the war. Their focus was on domestic perception towards the war.

So, they spun and escaped.

But today, the plan to advance towards the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast has multiple target audiences. The most important of all is Western leaders. How can Putin convince them to a ceasefire if he withdraws from the northeast or if he continues to be thwarted by Ukrainian forces near Chasiv Yar?

Very, very difficult.

And things are getting very, very difficult inside the Russian economy as well. So, I have no idea how Russians will respond. This is a bad situation, and all outcomes remain bad for them.

What can Ukraine do now?

Nothing fancy. The entire world knows they can fight, so there is no need to prove anything to anyone. They just have to keep their heads down and keep doing what they did for the last two weeks. I hope they take Klishivvka back soon.

As for the rest of the territory they lost in the last few months, it’s not a big deal. We can get it back as and when we can.

No need to hurry.

The need to keep their focus on deep attacks. Defend the frontline. Destroy Russian combat power by taking the attack deep into the occupied territory using long range weapons. Use the time to mobilize further, train your troops and when the time comes, go after the Russian frontline.

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