Russians Want to Break the Ukrainian Lines near Borova
Despite the setback in the northeast, they refuse to give up on their desire to target Kharkhiv and Kupiansk.
Russia’s military is ramping up efforts to break Ukrainian defensive lines near Borova, aiming to target Kharkiv and Kupiansk despite setbacks in the northeast.
This strategy echoes the desperate offensives of World War I, particularly those led by General Erich Georg von Falkenhayn and then by Paul von Hindenburg and Erich Ludendorff. By examining Germany’s failed Spring Offensive of 1918, we can draw valuable parallels to the current conflict and foresee potential outcomes.
By 1917, the Western Front in World War I had become a bloody stalemate. Trench warfare dominated, resulting in horrific casualties on both sides but minimal territorial gains. The initial German blitzkrieg had stalled, replaced by a brutal and exhausting stalemate. German command, stung by mounting losses and the looming threat of fresh American troops, felt a desperate need to break the deadlock.
Launched in March 1918, the German Spring Offensive, or Kaiserschlacht (“Kaiser’s Battle”), comprised four key thrusts: Michael, Georgette, Gneisenau, and Blücher-Yorck. The goal was to exploit weaknesses in the Allied lines, force a surrender, and secure victory before American reinforcements could arrive.
The initial attacks were devastatingly successful. British lines buckled under the onslaught, and German troops surged forward. However, these victories came at a terrible cost. German soldiers fell in droves, and the logistical nightmare of sustaining the offensive soon became apparent. Horses died, heavy weapons sputtered to a halt, and supplies dwindled. The offensive lost momentum.
By summer, the Allies, bolstered by American reinforcements, launched a brutal counteroffensive. The German gamble had backfired spectacularly. Germany faced defeat, and the Spring Offensive became a symbol of desperation and the perils of reckless military gambles in a stalemate.
Russian forces are preparing to launch a renewed assault on established Ukrainian defensive lines in Kharkiv Oblast. “The Ukrainian analytical group DeepState reported on June 18 that Russian troops had increased their forces to 10,000 personnel and 450 units of military equipment in the area from Raihorodka to Novovodyanoye, about 20 km from Borova”.
Russia’s strategy involves three main thrusts: one through Vovchansk-Hlyboke, another directly above and below Kupiansk, and a third towards Borova. The aim is to encircle the cities of Kharkiv and Kupiansk in the northeast, forcing Ukraine to redistribute its troops.
This situation mirrors Falkenhayn’s desperation in 1918. Like Falkenhayn, Russian leadership, facing potential defeat and economic strain, is taking significant risks to change the course of the conflict.
Ukraine is likely to reinforce its defenses near Borova without significantly weakening its positions in the northeast. The momentum in the northeast sector favors Ukraine, and they have shown resilience in holding their lines in the rest of the map.
Ukraine started their northeast pushback with infantry-heavy assaults supported by drones, artillery, and glide bombs dropped by their airforce. Now, they have escalated to mechanized assaults on Russian positions.
According to ISW’s report today:
Russian sources published geolocated footage on June 16 purportedly showing Russian forces repelling a Ukrainian counterattack in northwestern Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv City).
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces launched mechanized counterattacks near Hlyboke and counterattacked from the direction of Tykhe (northeast of Kharkiv City) and near the Aggregate Plant within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City).
Ukraine must have also managed to gain fire control over parts of the northeast and suppress Russian drone operators, otherwise they would not have luanched mechanized counterattacks.
It is quite ironic. Russia opened up a front in the northeast to force the Ukrainians to move their troops there. Now, they are renewing their assault on the old frontline to force the Ukrainians to move their troops out of northeast.
Great job, Defense Minister Andrei Belosov.
I understand that military operations are not his forte and that they might be handled by a small circle directly reporting to Putin. But Belosov is the defense minister. He will take credit for all victories, so let him take the fall when things go wrong.
I have seen this from various angles from the Ukrainian perspective. Let us look at this from the other side. What can Russia do to sustain its efforts?
Can they afford to not lose too much and keep extending this war?
There are a few things I would definitely consider (Russian Point of View).
I would not use too many Russian missiles until the F-16s arrive. Since I have no idea how many are coming and how Ukraine plans to introduce them — whether in a phased manner or by deploying two squadrons at once — I would keep a good number of missiles in storage. These would be my go-to weapon for taking out airfields.
I understand that mobilization is starting to send more troops to the frontline. However, Ukraine is struggling with training. Therefore, I would push as hard as I can to destroy Ukrainian troops. This way, I can reduce the time Ukraine has to train its troops. I don’t want to give them too much time. Force Ukraine to send their troops to the frontline before the training is complete. The only way to do that is by staying on the counterattack.
Since it has become very clear in the last four weeks that advancing in the northeast is easier said than done, I would ask the Russian troops to start building fortifications in the northeast. It worked really well in the south, so it should work well in the northeast if it can be done under fire.
Keep going until the reserves are at half capacity. At this point, I would stop the counterattacks. Let the reserves rise again, and then I would counterattack again. It would be like a sine wave, up and down, depending on the state of reserve strength.
What should Ukraine do now?
The attack towards Borova is being conducted with one intention: to make Ukraine move its troops from the northeast. It could be a feint. However, these are established lines that held for a very long time. Ukraine may have to reinforce the section by pulling troops from elsewhere and sending new units into the area. They will mix and match.
I do not think Ukraine will move any of their forces from the northeast. The momentum in this sector is clearly with Ukraine.
Russia is sending a ton of its well-trained brigades to the northeast. First, the well trained VDV elements were moved. Now, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is being relocated to the northeast. Ukrainian military bloggers say that Kremlin is sending heavy weapons to the northeast along with armored personnel carriers. I have zero doubts that they are doing this.
Russia has significantly slowed down its use of tanks and other military vehicles. They are running out and are using them sparingly. If they are sending a decent batch to the northeast, it indicates the level of importance they afford to the sector and the fact that they are aware things are not going well for them.
Compared to what is happening in the northeast, it is actually all quiet on the southern front. Both sides are firing at each other in the south, just to ensure that troops are forced to stay in their respective areas and not given the leeway to move to another sector. As a result, I don’t think there will be any major assaults or potential breakthroughs achieved by either side. The south will stay quiet for some more time.
The amount of combat power Russians have lost in the northeast is starting to affect their operations in Donetsk Oblast. I am going to give you two sets of images. One will show how much Russians advanced in the Avdiivka sector before they launched their May 10th northeast offensive, and the second set will show you how much they advanced after launching it.
If they advance at this rate, it will take another year or two before the Russian armed forces can reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.
The lines are not budging anymore.
They budged between January and April 2024 because Ukraine did not have the ammunition and manpower needed to hold firm. That deficiency has been addressed. Ukraine can defend, and they can defend really well. They still need a bit more time to launch a strong counter-offensive, but what they already have is enough to defend the frontline and also stay on the counterattack in the northeast.
As long as they ensure that they do not allow the Russian forces to dig in the northeast, I think they will be absolutely fine. Staying on the counterattack in the northeast is one way to stop the Russians from digging in.
Ukraine is on a targeted hunting mission to destroy anything that tries to dig a hole in the sector.
I also don’t think Ukraine will be able to push the Russians immediately out of the Northeast. If they get to that spot, the war will be very close to being over.
The fate of this two and half year war can be decided in the northeast. We can bring this to an end.
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