Russia’s North-East Attack Backfires Spectacularly
Ukraine turns the table on the Russian armed forces in the North-East
The problem with an infantry-heavy army is that when personnel losses pile up, they tend to drain combat power faster than anticipated. To put it another way, if you send 5,000 troops to the frontline and they are quickly lost, the next set of troops you send in will likely vanish just as quickly.
Because the second set of troops will not be as confident of success, morale becomes a critical factor.
When morale takes a hit, it becomes difficult to sustain the tempo of the initial assault. This principle applies to all military endeavors. This is why the first 100 hours of a battle are considered extremely vital. If you do not achieve a breakthrough during the initial assault, your enemy will be prepared to meet you, turning the conflict into a grinding war and making it less likely that you will achieve your objective.
The Russian objective in the northeast was to get within artillery range of Kharkiv.
They can, of course, move their artillery units to their newly occupied positions, shaded in red in the image above, and target the northern parts of Kharkiv. However, it would only take one or two shells fired by the Russian units for Ukrainian forces at the frontline to take out those artillery units.
The Russians are bogged down in street-by-street fighting in the sector and cannot move their artillery units yet. To do that, they need to push the Ukrainian troops further south.
Ten days ago, in my May 16 assessment, I said that the Russian tempo in the sector would slow down if their casualty rate sharply increased:
I thought that a sharp rise in casualty rates, if it can be dialed up by 50%, it will change the Russian calculus. It has to, isn’t it? Make no mistake, every day, paper after paper will go to the Russian high command. When the overlords in air-conditioned rooms in the Kremlin see the spike in casualty rates, showing a 50% increase, what will they do?
Will they send a bit more, or will they slow things down to reassess? They will look at where the additional casualties are coming from, which is invariably from the northeast, and that is where they will hit the slow-down button.
Ukraine’s fierce response to the Russian incursion in the northeast quickly increased Russian losses. Currently, Russians are losing troops at an 8 to 1 ratio.
Due to the heightened rate of losses, the Russians have hit the slow-down button. They are no longer trying to advance; instead, they are trying to dig in.
ISW reported on this slow-development in its report today.
A Ukrainian commander operating in the Lyptsi direction (north of Kharkiv City) stated that Ukrainian forces have completely stopped Russian offensive operations in the Strilecha-Hlyboke direction (north of Lyptsi) and that Ukrainian forces are now focused on regaining territory in the area.
The commander stated that Ukrainian forces are successfully pushing Russian forces out of captured positions but that Russian forces are saturating the area with manpower and equipment to prevent Ukrainian forces from seizing the tactical initiative.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces have partially transitioned to the defensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast after consolidating captured positions and are currently focused on destroying reserves that Ukrainian forces have concentrated near Kharkiv City.
The milblogger assessed that Ukrainian forces would have to launch counterattacks in the area at the end of May 2024 to push Russian forces out of northern Kharkiv Oblast and that future Russian plans on this axis likely depend on the outcome of Ukrainian counterattacks
And yep.
Ukraine has to push now, and I hope they do. The Russians are digging in instead of sending in the estimated 50,000 troops spread over three oblasts in the northeast. The only reason the Russians are hesitating is that they are unsure if they will be able to advance with their current set of troops.
If the Russian commander in the northeast loses 700 soldiers per day in the sector, in 40 days, they would have lost 60% of their current troop capacity. When units are operating at 30% to 40% strength, “the Russian system is configured to classify them as non-mission capable.”
What that means is, if the rate of losses is sustained for a month, the Russian troops in the northeast will become non-mission capable according to their own doctrine. They wouldn’t even be able to hold out; they would have to retreat. Under these circumstances, the Russians have only one option, not even two — they need reinforcements.
Until those reinforcements arrive, they need to figure out a way to hold the territory they have occupied. That is what they are trying to do now in the northeast.
Ukraine has successfully turned the tables.
The reason the Russian armed forces opened up a new front was to stretch the Ukrainian forces along the frontline. Short on manpower and combat strength, the Russians assumed that a new front would weaken Ukrainian resistance in the Donetsk region, where the Russians are trying to advance.
But they grossly overestimated their own capacity while seriously underestimating Ukraine’s ability to mount a mobile defense without properly prepared defensive lines.
Now, the Russian armed forces do not have a choice but to add more troops to their northeast attack or risk being evicted. If the Ukrainians do manage to evict the Russians from the northeast, it will be a huge information victory. It will completely change the dynamics of the war, and the momentum will shift, dealing a significant blow to the Russian armed forces.
I wouldn’t call this a huge tactical victory for Ukraine. They have fought well, but the problem the Russians are facing now is a mistake of their own making. They went overboard and assumed they could handle a new front.
Russians lack the capability to establish new offensive fronts. Their recent attempts have been met with strong resistance and resulted in heavy losses. A strategic withdrawal would be the most prudent course of action. This would allow them to preserve their combat strength and refocus their efforts on securing Donetsk.
What should Ukraine do?
Let me add a bit of a disclaimer here. I am very good at predicting what the Russians will do. Most of the time, I am right on the money. However, when it comes to predicting what the Ukrainians will do, I’m not as confident. They are unpredictable. I don’t think a change in the Commander-in-Chief would have altered the way Ukrainians respond.
I think Ukraine should escalate its attacks on the Russian troops holed up in the northeast. They should not allow them any breathing space. The tempo of Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions should continually escalate. They need to pile up Russian losses.
The problem the Russian army now faces in the northeast is that they cannot afford to withdraw. It would be a significant blow for the Kremlin, and they would struggle to conceal their setback. The recruitment process, which sees thousands of Russians enlisted every day, is fueled by the narrative that they are advancing and can win the war.
A withdrawal from the northeast would indeed be perceived as a defeat. Putin is inching towards a ceasefire to prevent Russia from experiencing a full-blown collapse, and he desperately needs to maintain the perception of winnability. This entails Russia continuing with its creeping advances, opening up new fronts, and, if possible, deploying troops towards Kyiv.
All those plans would be thwarted if the Russians were to withdraw from the northeast. Therefore, it’s likely that Russians will reinforce their troop capacity in the sector. For this reason, I believe Ukraine should launch counterattacks in this sector, albeit with limited objectives.
But at least one of these two bulges must be eliminated.
This war is on the brink of witnessing a momentum shift, and these are the moments one waits for. They must be seized with both hands. Victory is not merely a singular moment of triumph on the battlefield; it is the accumulation of small wins over a long period of time that drains the opponent and pushes them further and further away from achieving their objectives.
If the United States allows Ukraine to strike at those Russian troops stationed inside the Russian border, specifically the garrisons that are supporting the Russian advance in this sector, Ukraine could decisively win this battle.
I am not sure if the Biden administration understands the importance of the moment that is staring right at their face. I will leave it to House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul to explain where the problem is:
“You know, Congress got them the equipment, and they thank you for implementing that. But Congress did not put restrictions on the use of these weapons. It’s Jake Sullivan and your administration that has put the restrictions on these weapons,” Chairman McCaul said during a recent congressional hearing.
I’m not extremely confident that the Biden administration will change its course, but I am slightly hopeful because the State Department, led by Secretary Anthony Blinken, is pushing them in the right direction. However, the problem is that these moments won’t last forever. Time is of the essence. How long will it take for the Russians to mobilize more troops for the northeast? Days matter. Hours matter.
I am hopeful that the Ukrainian armed forces will understand the importance of seizing this opportunity.
They should go after it.
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