Russia’s Offensive is an Offense to all Offensives
There is no method behind this madness
After invading Ukraine last year, Russia won fewer battlefield victories than its adversary. Ukraine lost small towns like Lysychansk and Popasna, while the Russians were driven out of huge territories in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson.
After occupying 51,420 square miles in March 2022, Putin’s thugs were forced to pack their dwindling battalions into 40,614 square miles by November.
It paints a damning picture of the invading forces.
But the Russians are working hard to adapt. There is no doubt that weapons production has increased. NATO chief admitted yesterday that Ukraine is consuming ammunition at a faster rate than their combined production. NBC News reported in December that the Russians are bombarding Ukraine with three to five times more ammunition.
U.S. defense officials said last month that Russia is burning through a staggering 20,000 rounds a day, and Ukraine about 4,000 to 7,000 a day. — NBC
Ukraine uses more ammunition than NATO can produce, but still cannot match the daily drops from Russia. It paints a more damning picture of the allies’ war effort.
Russians are adapting, while NATO is still struggling.
After Russia ran out of precision weapons, they repurposed air defense missiles to attack Ukrainian infrastructure. When Ukraine’s air defense systems reduced Russian missile attacks to nothing, the Russians adapted. First, they sent in a swarm of Iranian drones to confuse the air defense systems, then launched a barrage of missiles. Some of them made it through. Russian attacks remain a threat to Ukraine’s power and other infrastructure.
In the past few months, the Russians have taken a page from Stalin’s playbook.
Putin’s thugs use Russian convicts and poorly trained conscripts as shooting targets. Whenever Ukraine defends a town or village, Russia will first send a small contingent of expendables into battle. When the expenable group gets attacked, the Ukrainian defenders’ positions will be exposed, and the Russians will target them with artillery. Then the Russians will send in another group of expendables to see if Ukrainian defenders are still there. After exhausting the defenders for a while, the army of thugs will send in better trained professional fighters to the front.
Rinse. Repeat. Keep a group of trainees to regularly dig graves just behind the frontline.
More than 200,000 Russians have already died. Each day, 500 to 1,000 Russians lose their lives in Ukraine. Putin’s plan to move the frontline by throwing everything at Ukraine is gradually increasing the casualty numbers.
What have the Russians achieved with this offensive? The Russians gained 2kms in the first four days after starting their offensive drive. That’s right. That is exactly how much they have gained.
2 kms.
4 days.
In comparison, when Ukraine mounted a daring counterattack to capture Kupiansk and Izyum, the Ukrainians liberated 600 square miles of occupied territory in a matter of days, and then sustained the counterattack for some time to control the Oskil River. The Russians were forced to flee as a result of the massive counterattack.
Not just Kupiansk. Whenever the Russians lost, they lost hundreds of square miles in days.
The Human Wave Attacks
Human wave attacks have been deployed by Russia in an attempt to breach Ukrainian defenses. This fact alone raises many questions, such as why haven’t they been able to send faster offensive units?
I don’t believe the Russian invasion will gradually gain momentum, despite the numerous opinion pieces in the media.
More than 2,000 Russian soldiers have died in the last week. Putin has ordered his army to capture Donetsk and Luhansk in its entirety. The Russians are attacking all along the Ukrainian frontline in the east, letting Ukraine know where the Russians are focusing their attention.
The surprise is already gone.
So when and where exactly will the fast moving offensive that breaks through Ukrainian defensive layers will happen?
The answer is — nope.
It will never happen because there ain’t one.
In fact, the Russians are not pressing heavy weapons into the charge because they do not have any. In that case, how exactly will this army of thugs, which has repeatedly demonstrated that it does not know how to mount a 21st century combined warfare, win this offensive?
If anything, these guys are still stuck on strategies used by Stalin. They are banking on human waves to exhaust Ukraine.
I mean. Good lord!
How is Putin planning to win Donetsk and Luhansk in its entirety? I really don’t see a possibility.
In Putin’s view, now is the time to attack
Putin ordered this attack not because the current conditions are ideal for an offensive, but because he expects conditions to get worse in the future. Ukraine is not going on the attack for the same set of reasons. They expect to have a better hand in the future, so they are waiting.
Putin’s assessment that this is the last chance to capture some territory may be true. Ukraine is on the verge of receiving proper weapons for the first time since the beginning of this war.
In the latest tranche, west is sending hundreds of tanks, fast moving armored vehicles and air defense systems. These are some of the best systems in NATO’s possession. Ukraine has been relying on Soviet era tanks to control its territory. They will have the best tanks the world has to offer in another few weeks.
Ukraine will face an poorly equipped, poorly trained enemy with better trained and batter equipped soldiers. Global media is so mesmerized by the argument that the Russian army has mobilized 300,000 men for the war. The media continues to magnify the Russian threat by referencing the number of hands Russia will be able to move towards the frontline.
The insinuation here is Russian can keep sending tens of thousands of Russians to the frontline and exhaust Ukraine.
Fair enough.
Now, let us look at the evidence.
In September last year, Putin ordered partial mobilization, which gives him +150 days to recruit. Hundreds of Russians are buried ten feet under every day. Wagner mercenaries, which act as support troops for the Russian army in Ukraine, mainly train and deploy Russian convicts to the frontline.
ISW reported two weeks ago that the Russian army has taken over the Wagner mercenary position around Bakhmut. The mercenary group is struggling to find convicts to send to the front line. If convicts are refusing to fight, why would any average Russian participate in this madness?
You will have to send whoever the Russians find to the frontline. It doesn’t matter how long you train someone who does not want to be trained. This isn’t the same as dropping sandbags to stop a the water overflowing in the farm. It is as foolish as trying to stop the Dnipro river with sandbags.
It will work in patches.
It will not work on a sustained basis.
Global media have now raised concerns that Russia could mount an air war. What next? A sneaky submarine attack? Or could the sunk Moskva suddenly reappear in the black sea, changing the war’s course?
Putin is still milking the media to expand his narrative that there is a large invasion and the Russians will seize the initiative from here on.
The only smart move the Russians have done so far is the line of attack. They are concentrating their fire power on the Kreminna Svatove line, starting at Bakhmut in the south. By the end of this winter, whoever controls Kreminna and Svatove will be better positioned to take control of all Donbas.
I also think Ukraine should defend Bakhmut for as long as possible. US military officials have argued that Ukraine should withdraw and save resources. But that will also free up the huge amount of resources Russia continues to waste in its attack on Bakhmut. You should always keep your enemy fighting for his ego when he gets stuck fighting for it.
In my opinion, this Russian offensive won’t succeed. The Russians may win a few towns. But that’s it. They won’t be able to capture hundreds of square miles in a single day like the Ukrainians.
Global media should top calling this an offensive. It is extremely offensive to all the offensives.
