Syria to Putin: Get the Fuck Out
Good riddance
Ok.
I’ll admit it.
Today was the first time in a very long while that I kept smiling all the way through until I finished a story. It was one of those rare occasions.
If someone had told me a year ago that Putin would be kicked out of Syria, I would have laughed at their opinion. The Russian group in the region is known as the PMTG — Permanent Mediterranean Task Group.
Permanent.
The Russian lease for the Tartus Naval Port in Syria runs to 2068. This port is a crucial warm water facility for Russia and the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean equipped with the infrastructure necessary to support their naval operations in the region, as well as in the Middle East and Africa.
Without that naval base, Russian submarines, warships, and naval transport ships couldn’t operate freely in the region. They couldn’t escort Iranian oil tankers or keep an eye on NATO forces in the Mediterranean.
Had the Russians not set foot in Syria and established their military presence using the Tartus Naval Base and Khmeimim Air Base, US President Barack Obama would have easily ousted Bashar Al-Assad. It was the fear of getting into a direct confrontation with Russian forces in the region that put Obama on the back foot — a big mistake, but one forced by the Russian presence.
Yesterday, Syria canceled the Russian lease on the Tartus Naval Base and ordered Putin’s troops to leave the country. After Bashar Al-Assad fled Syria in December 2024, it wasn’t clear how the new administration would handle the Russian troops who had been stationed in their country for over ten years.
The Jolani-led HTS, which controls Syria, made it absolutely clear that Iran would not have any diplomatic leverage over them, and that relationship, due to past history, is done.
But what about Russia?
I feared that the new administration might try to balance the interests of the West, Turkey, and Russia by giving something to everyone. At first glance, if the HTS had asked Russia to evacuate its ground forces, exit the Khmeimim Air Base, but retain the Tartus naval base for an exorbitant annual fee, it seemed like a reasonable calculus.
To a large extent, it did appear that things were moving in that direction, to give some space to the Russian troops. Even when the HTS chased Assad’s forces, they carefully sidestepped the Latakia province where most of the Russian troops were stationed.
Even after Assad fled and his army in Syria surrendered, the Russian troops did not engage the HTS or any other ethnic group in the region. It was eerily quiet. Some of the Russian ground forces fled to Turkey. Most of the Russian naval ships had left the Tartus port, but some troops remained at the port.
I wanted Syria to get rid of the Russians, but I wasn’t sure it would happen. But the announcement came yesterday, making the Permanent Mediterranean Task Group the only group in the world without a permanent home.
The Russians will move. They might move their forces to Libya, Sudan, or Algeria — God knows. They will try to keep some presence in the region. Zero is worse than humiliation. But wherever they move, it will never be equivalent to the Tartus Naval Base. None of the nations they can move into offers the stability and facilities Assad’s regime offered the Russian army.
From a power player in the region, Russians have been diluted into a guest visitor. Russia’s strong and permanent presence is a requirement to politically destabilize Europe and facilitate the ascension of Kremlin-favorable right-wing governments in the region.
Without Russia operating in Syria, the following statistics would not occur.
If there’s no immigration issue, all the right-wing parties in Europe would be relegated to the fringe — the place where they truly belong. These parties get mainstreamed and their radical views become benign because people fear migration. Russia, with strong help from Iran, destabilizes the Middle East and Africa to send hundreds of thousands of migrants to Europe every year.
With Russian forces holding ground in Syria, Europe could do nothing to stop this relentless wave of migration from the Middle East and Africa. The end result? More than 200,000 migrants flood the Eurozone every year. Each year the number of migrants in Europe increases, and each year the right-wing vote share in national elections increases.
Recent reports said that Donald Trump, while golfing with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, said that he won because of immigration. I 100% agree. Immigration was the number one issue, followed by the economy. Immigration concerns are now so powerful they can topple governments.
If the right wing took control of Germany and France, that would be the end of Europe. That would be the end of NATO. It would also be the beginning of the end of the global democracy experiment. Putin’s bases in Syria were key for him to realize this goal.
That threat ended yesterday. I’m not going to say that global peace will return in two years. But I will confidently say that the world has indeed taken a huge step towards achieving peace and stability. Syria has given a huge hand to the democratic world. Iran and Russia will now be waiting for a mistake. They are distracted, but make no mistake, if they get an opportunity, they will do whatever they can to destabilize Syria again.
It will be our job to make sure that they never succeed.
Thanks for reading. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 351 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
