Shankar Narayan
2 min readApr 17, 2023

--

Thanks Mr. Buttons. You are always welcome to point out of the gaps and be my critic. I do not see that as problem. It is the best way to learn. Share and improve.

Ammo vs Wait time. I hope the following explanation addresses your question. If not let me know, I will take another shot at it.

Lets say Ukraine already had the heavy weapons in hand by September last year. The odds are they would have clearly pushed towards Svatove, after taking control of Kupiansk and Izyum (kharkiv offensive august-september). Capturing svatove would have helped them end Russian occupation in Luhansk oblast.

Ukraine attacked the Russian positions on the eastern front (kharkiv) as well as the south western front (kherson). For the kherson battle I believe they mobilized closer to 40k soldiers and a lot of vehicles as well. This limited their options on the eastern front. Capacity did not allow for a large scale attack on the two ends, so they went for a blitz with limited objectives on the eastern front and a steady, longer term attack in the south.

After those two attacks, Ukraine made the choice to wait (no offensive after November last year ) because they accepted that they did not have the capacity to push any further(lack of heavy weapons to breach the defensive russian lines helped by terrain and troop levels). As steve singer pointed out earlier, this is a difficult situation, the west is doing what it can with respect to ammo production, I only wish they offered the heavy weapons earlier and push a little harder to ramp up ammo production.

Thanks.

--

--

Shankar Narayan
Shankar Narayan

Written by Shankar Narayan

He didn't care what he had or what he had left, he cared only about what he must do.

Responses (1)