The Clock Has Ticked on Putin’s War Economy

Below $70

As of April 23, 2025, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has traded below $70 per barrel on 37 days this year — with 13 of those days spent under $65. This matters. Every day WTI stays low, Russian Urals crude — which consistently trades at a discount — falls with it. And each time that happens, Vladimir Putin has to cover the shortfall with his emergency reserves.

Historically, Urals crude has traded about 10% below WTI, owing to its lower quality — heavier, more sulfurous, less refined. That discount widens or narrows depending on sanctions, demand, and routing costs, but the baseline gap remains. Russia’s 2025 budget assumes an average Urals price of $69.70 per barrel. Every dollar below that mark chips away at the country’s main fiscal buffer — the National Wealth Fund.

• Under Russia’s fiscal rules, oil and gas revenues above the benchmark flow into the NWF.
• Any revenue shortfall below that benchmark must be plugged by withdrawing from it.
• As of April 1, the fund held $39.8 billion in liquid assets.

Every $1 drop in the Urals price costs Russia roughly $10 million per day in lost revenue. The bleeding is steady, and — for now — unstoppable. Since the start of the year, Moscow has leaned harder on its reserves than ever…