The Last of the Black Sea Fleet Leaves Crimea
Ukraine now controls navigation
“The last patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is bolting from our Crimea just now. Remember this day,” Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk wrote on Facebook yesterday.
Asked to clarify whether this was a permanent move, Pletenchuk told Reuters: “Most likely, this is a transition between bases”, adding that Moscow did not usually send ships to the open sea for no reason.
A battle that lasted for more than a year has yielded the results Ukraine had always sought: making Crimea untenable for Russian naval operations.
It might seem like a distant memory, but there was a period when world leaders made feverish trips to Moscow to cajole the dictator into releasing Ukrainian grains. In July 2023, an African delegation traveled all the way to Sochi, Russia. Putin had pulled out of the grain deal he had struck with the United Nations and Turkey, sending grain prices on a rollercoaster ride.
It was against this backdrop that Ukraine decided to take matters into its own hands. They attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet: one hit here, another hit there. Storm Shadow missiles. Neptune missiles. Naval drones. Sabotage missions. Daring commando raids. Of the estimated 75 naval ships on duty in the Black Sea, Ukraine had struck more than a third while they were operating in Crimea.
The losses became too heavy for the Russian navy to swallow, as the terrain became too difficult to defend. The final ship has left the Sevastopol naval base. In their arrogance, the masters of the Russian naval forces did not bother to build multiple dry docks. There was only one place in the entire Black Sea to conduct repairs: the Sevastopol naval base, Crimea.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet is scared of open waters. There is no way they are going to send their ships on patrol missions, as these are highly likely to be suicide missions. There is no way Russia will be able to repair any of its heavily damaged ships, as the only dry dock in the Black Sea is under threat from Ukraine’s long-range missiles.
How does this help Ukraine?
By the end of this month, Russia is all set to increase its interest rate from the current 16%. Some reports say inflation is above 4%. Some say its almost 10%.
In utter contrast, Ukraine reduced its interest rate to 13.5% in April. Annual inflation reached 3.2% in March this year.
Ukraine’s cash flow has improved this year compared to last year due to the steady increase in the flow of grains through the Black Sea.
Between the end of the grain deal in July 2023 and the end of February 2024, it shipped about 20 million tonnes of grain to 42 countries, according to the country’s vice prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov.
Ukraine is now exporting more than five million tonnes of grain a month.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet was more of an economic hassle than a military threat. Putin used his navy to contain and constrain the Ukrainian economy. His plan worked well in the first and second years of the war, until Ukraine decided it had enough of the endless deal-making runarounds with Vladimir Putin.
The United Kingdom provided long-range missiles, and Ukraine filled in a few blanks with its own ingenuity. The rest has become history. On July 15th, the Russian Black Sea Fleet completely withdrew from Crimea.
With it, Russia’s ability to contest the Black Sea has come to an end.
What next for Crimea?
The full withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet is great news for the safety of Ukraine’s maritime corridor. Cargo ships traveling to and from Ukrainian ports no longer need to worry about the Russian navy.
However, the departure of naval ships from Crimea will not end its use as a staging area for Russian ground operations in Southern Ukraine. The Russians will continue using the airfields for daily sorties, Iskander launchers will keep firing missiles into Ukraine, and depots will still hold oil and other supplies.
Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges says the “next step is the isolation of Crimea from Russia (cutting off rail, bridge, ferries).”
The siege of Crimea has entered the next phase. The Crimean bridge is only one part of the logistical chain connecting Crimea, Russia, and the Russian armed forces in occupied Ukraine. There are plenty of other elements that need to be addressed.
For now, Crimea will remain Ukraine’s favorite hunting ground for Russian air-defense systems.
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