We’re on the Verge of the MAGA Party’s Worst Defeat Ever

Three times in a row is not a coincidence

Shankar Narayan

--

Image by Vecteezy

When 94 out of 100 Republicans vote for their party and 95 out of 100 Democrats follow suit, voters who stay independent of the partisan divide elect the winner.

More than a dozen states still depend heavily on independents.

Drop a healthy dose of Trump’s MAGA ideology in states with a sizable number of independents, Donald Trump will deliver the most convincing defeat ever. Republican strategy for the future is to keep winning states where they are going to win anyway and lose in everything else.

In 2020, the Republican party suffered its most devastating defeat in 88 years under Donald Trump. Senate Republicans are headed for a historical defeat in 2022.

Independents are fleeing the MAGA party as the Republicans run low on gas in the final stretch of the midterm elections. State after state is reporting either a tie, a small lead, or a huge lead for Democratic Senate candidates.

The Center of America continues to pull away from the MAGA Party

It’s easy to slice and dice the US electorate in so many ways and find the factors that helped Biden take down Donald Trump. But let’s not dig too deep, because the numbers at the surface themselves provide enough insight.

While Biden improved his margins with democratic voters by one percentage point compared to Hillary Clinton, Trump improved his margins with Republican voters by two percentage points.

Screenshot from Pew Research Center

Independents swung heavily towards Biden and away from Donald Trump in 2020. Hillary lost the independents by one point. Biden won them by nine points.

There is no doubt that independents across the country prepared the historical blowout that was delivered to the RNC headquarters in 2020. Having a high single digit lead with independents is often more than enough to win the White House.

--

--

Shankar Narayan

Lov stats and hate status-quo. Forecasted all the states Biden won in 2020. Correctly forecasted the twin Georgia elections in 2021, House and Senate in 2022.