The Miscalculation That May Break Putin

How Trump’s push on OPEC, a looming global slowdown, and Ukraine’s open window are reshaping the battlefield.

Accelerated hike.

That’s how the media framed the March 3rd decision by the oil cartel: an agreement to boost output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in May. Instead of gradual monthly increases, OPEC+ bundled three steps into one — speeding up the phase-out of a 2.2 million bpd cut over the next 18 months. The decision was jointly made by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

At first glance, Russia signing off on an output increase doesn’t make much sense. But they did. Under mounting pressure from President Donald Trump — pressure that Axios later reported may have swayed the cartel’s decision — the United States leaned hard on OPEC+ to flood the market — aiming to drive down global oil prices, curb inflation, and stimulate economic growth.

The Trump administration prioritized lowering gasoline prices to combat inflation and stimulate consumer spending. By pressuring OPEC+ to boost output, it aimed to cut energy costs, juice economic growth, and lock in political support ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The problem? This strategy ran directly against the interests of…