Ukraine: The Perils of Nick-Of-Time Delivery
Ukraine is fighting a war that should have been won a long time ago
I woke up to the following news by BBC.
“Ukrainian troops on the front lines in the Donbas have told the BBC that Russian forces are learning every day and changing their strategy as they continue to gain ground around the heavily contested town of Bakhmut. But the soldiers also insisted that morale remains high, despite growing exhaustion after almost a year of war”.
It made me wonder…
How did a visibly exhausted Russian army — one that could not move its troops in time to stave off Ukraine’s September counter-offensive near Izium that liberated 2,000 square kilometers of occupied territory, find the time to focus its ground offensive around Bakhmut for such a long time?
How did a visibly fearful Russian army that could not hold on to their positions west of the Dnipro river near Kherson against an advancing Ukrainian army, and had to retreat across the river to the safety of the river by blowing up the bridges, found the courage to drop thousands of soldiers every week in Bakhmut?
The loss of Soledar, a village near Bakhmut, may feel like a small defeat for Ukraine in the larger war. The resurrection of Russia from a loser that ran for the hills in November into a force that drained all the momentum Ukraine had built in January cannot be the result of pure chance. As Ukrainian soldiers told BBC — -the Russians are learning and adapting.
Ukraine had all the momentum it needed when they pushed the Russians across the Dnipro river. But Ukraine did not have the fast moving offensive weapons it needed to chase the enemy on the run, cross the mighty Dniper, create a beachhead and then defend it with all its strength. The fact that Ukraine didn’t even make an attempt to cross the Dniper for more than two months is a testament to the kind of weapons in their disposal.
By November 2022 it became evident that Ukraine was struggling. “U.S. defense officials said “Russia is burning through a staggering 20,000 rounds a day, and Ukraine about 4,000 to 7,000 a day”.
The Russians were also burning through their ammunition. They were most likely using up more than they could build on a daily basis. But a differential factor of three to five times between Russian and Ukrainian firepower points to a glaring shortfall in western supply.
The Ukrainians have filled this gap with their ingenuity and tactical skills. They have done a great job with what has been given to them. They have repeatedly punched above their weight even when they were asked to fight with one hand behind their backs. Russians can walk into Ukraine and attack, but Ukraine cannot target those production facilities deep inside Russian soil with western weapons.
It would have been nice if the West had provided Ukraine with weapons that could reach its entire territory. However, the West refused. Precision artillery systems provided by the West are limited in range. Russians kept those ammo dumps farther away from Ukraine’s reach. In the end, Ukraine had to fight inches instead of kilometers.
In the northern theatre, Ukraine is targeting the Kreminna-Svatove line. This is an extremely critical transportation route that connects mainland Russia with key towns at the edge of the Russian frontline in the north. The loss of Svatove will make Russian occupation of Rubizhne, Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, and Lysyhansk untenable. Russians will be forced to leave Bakhmut.
Now reverse the logic presented above.
What will happen if Russia pumps everything it has into Bakhmut?
- Press Ukraine with a wave after wave of human attacks. Russia doesn’t care about human lives. It was the mercenary army filled with prison inmates. They don't care about their lives.
- Ukraine did not want to yield because it will sap their winning momentum. I cannot blame them because moral is extremely important.
- Ukraine chooses to defend. But how do you fight against an army that does not care about its own soldiers?
- The cost of defending Bakhmut will invariably affect the strength of Ukraine’s offensive formations.
- The defense of Bakhmut is the sole reason why the offense for Svatove did not materialize.
In recent weeks, global media has been passionately talking about the Western decision to provide tanks and heavy offensive weapons to Ukraine. More than three hundred tanks are promised to the country. Approximately 140 tanks should arrive soon.
The key word here is ‘soon’.
Ukraine won’t receive tanks right away. There is a lot to do. Ukrainian soldiers must be trained, the tanks need to be kitted out, and they need to be moved. All of those things will take time.
Ukraine needs fast moving offensive units. But tanks are not the magic bullet that will change the course of the war. It is a useful item in the Ukrainian tool box.
Between today and when all these heavy weapons arrive in Ukraine, Russia will have time to increase its own production. It will add thousands of expendable Russians to its army. It will force thousands of good Russians to fight in a war they do not want to fight. Russia will get valuable days or even weeks to build ammunition.
The situation today would have been very different if these weapons had been supplied to Ukraine in November. Just changing the range of HIMARS from less than 100kms to 300kms would have completely changed the current status quo.
The Russian army would never have had the breathing space it achieved after retreating from Kherson. Ukraine would have kept hitting the Russians who were on the run.
Due to the difficulty of crossing the river and staying on the offensive, I am not sure if Ukraine would have built a beachhead utilizing the heavy weapons supplied by the west. Also, some of Russia’s biggest and best troops have been parked just north of Crimea, so it would have been difficult to accomplish that task.
But I am extremely confident that Ukraine would not have stopped pushing forward in Donetsk. Both Kreminna and Svatove would have fallen in December, creating extreme instability for the Russian frontline in Donetsk. With so many strategic towns at risk of liberation, the master strategist would have fallen into depression. He would have asked his generals to do everything they could to halt the offensive.
- The drones that flew into Ukrainian civilian infrastructure would have been diverted to Donetsk
- The New Year’s eve missile barrage that left vast swaths of Kyiv dark would have never happened because the generals would need anything and everything they need to stop the Ukrainians from liberating Donetsk.
But instead the opposite has happened.
Ukrainians have lost the initiative they earned through sweat. Russians have had a lot of room to adjust, and they have used it quite effectively since November to prevent Ukrainians from getting any further advantage. I believe that the slight advantage Russia currently holds will continue for some time.
My only hope right now is for Russia to make a mistake and expand its counter-offensive operations. But even that hope is starting to fade because I do not see any push in that direction. The whole Bakhmut fight seems to be a strategic decision by Russia to keep Ukrainians bleeding and bruised, in order to sap their energy and prevent them from engaging in offensive actions.
In reality, this is not a stalemate that many Western experts have been discussing. It is a direct result of Western inaction to arm Ukraine in a way to defeat Russia. The nick-of-time delivery is benefiting Russia and hurting Ukraine.
Every day this war continues, the world has a price to pay. For Ukraine, it’s the freedom and lives of their own people, while Europe’s security architecture is already in danger. In five years, Putin will knock on the doors of a few Baltic states if Ukraine loses its land. With enough time and money, he might even reach the doors of Poland.
That would be the day the world should begin to worry about a nuclear holocaust. .
Putin will risk it…. Because, why not. He is Putin, the Great.
If everyone ganged up for a year and then threw in the towel, he would tell his countrymen, I told you so. All of them are weaklings. I am the strongman I always told you I would be.
Little by little.
Acre by Acre.
Russkiy Mir (expansionist Russia) will be established.
And I the Czar will be hence forth be called Putin the great.
That will be a shame. Because Putin the great would have won a war not because of his greatness but because there were a few western leaders who do not know how to be decisive.
