The Trump-GOP Coalition Collapses Under the Weight of Dobbs.
The Iowa poll that shocked the nation is not an anomaly; it simply reflects the undercurrent.
Who would have thought that the whitest part of the nation would drift so strongly toward the Democrats in the final stretch? Trump and Musk keep pushing the idea that Democrats can’t win without people of color, but if you look closely, it’s actually the heavily white states that are strengthening their support for Harris.
Donald Trump is doing reasonably well in the more diverse Sunbelt states, like Hispanic-heavy Texas and Florida, but he’s struggling significantly in Wisconsin, Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and even Nebraska. His margins have fallen sharply in these states compared to his own past performances.
At first glance, it might seem like the Midwest is going through a realignment, but look a bit deeper and focus on what’s driving this change, and a surprising observation emerges.
The core driver of this shift away from Trump and the GOP in Midwestern states and Pennsylvania is White Senior Women. This is the one thread…
