Toropets Blowout: Corruption, Overconfidence, and Ukraine’s Ingenuity Shatter Russia’s Cache

The impact is still visible from outer space.

As the plumes of smoke visible from outer space begin to clear, the impact of Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s largest ammunition storage facility in Toropets is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to escape from.

Ukrainian sources report that the long-range Ukrainian drone attack on the Toropets arsenal, where tens of thousands of tons of missiles, bombs, and artillery shells were stored, was the most significant and devastating Ukrainian strike on Russian weapon stockpiles throughout the war.

The explosion, which is still ongoing, initially felt like a nuclear blast, registering as a 2.8 earthquake on the Richter scale. The Russians had stored many different types of missiles, artillery, and various ammunition at the site. Some were kept in designated areas, but others were scattered around, rendering the safety measures designed to protect the facility against direct attacks meaningless.

Ammo left sitting in the open is asking for trouble. Ukrainian military bloggers report that this was a coordinated attack using a massive swarm of around 100 drones. What remains unknown — and may never be revealed — is whether Ukraine deployed its newly developed drone-missile, Palianytsia, during the attack.

The site falls within the rumored range of the drone missile, which has a much higher payload than the regular long-range drones used by Ukraine. They may have combined various types of drones to target the facility.

The attack, its success, and its immediate impact on Russia’s war machine have undermined the Biden-Sullivan theory that relaxing restrictions on long-range weapons would have little effect on the war, as Russia had supposedly moved its valuable military assets beyond the range of Western weapons.

There are some things the Russians simply cannot move. How many lives will be saved by the destruction of 30,000 tons of ammunition? How many towns will be protected from Russia’s scorched-earth tactics? How much less will the Western world need to spend because of this single attack?

Where did the Russian armed forces derive the confidence that this facility would not be targeted by the Ukrainians? Did it come from their own strength, or was it influenced by certain policies and practices coming out of Washington, D.C.?

They assessed Ukraine’s capabilities and weighed the statements made by President Biden and his team.

Of course, the corrupt nature of the Russian military leadership played a role. But that alone cannot explain why the site went up in flames. It was just one factor. Through this attack, Ukraine has made a clear case for removing the restrictions the Biden administration has placed on its military options.

We cannot lump the entire Western world together and blame them all for asking Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back. The UK has been urging the Biden administration for months to allow Ukraine to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets, while the Biden-Sullivan team continues to stall and deflect.

I really don’t understand. How long did Biden and Sullivan think their actions would go unnoticed? They can’t keep getting away with this. The tone of neutral Western publications has already started to shift markedly against President Biden and his administration.

Just two days ago, Politico called out the Biden administration:

Matthew Kaminski, Politico’s editor-at-large, sharply criticized the way the Biden administration is handling Ukraine and Putin.

To Ukrainians, America’s president made it dispiritingly clear that he feared the uncertainty of Russia’s collapse more than he wanted to stand by values like democracy and self determination for a long repressed colonial outpost of Moscow.

What the U.S. does in Ukraine reverberates around the world. Allies and foes are watching closely. The Biden record on supporting its friends is mixed. Less than a year into his term, he pulled the U.S. out of Afghanistan, leaving behind some tens of thousands of Afghans who worked for the Americans, $300 billion in U.S. military kit, a bilateral security treaty in tatters, and American standing and deterrence weakened. Whatever you think about the merits of the war there, America abandoned its allies in Afghanistan — and Biden’s presidency never recovered. The downward turn in his approval ratings dates back to September of 2021.

The Ukrainians and their friends are dropping loud hints that Biden has a chance to reshape his legacy in his last four months. Put the caution aside and put the U.S. firmly behind victory for Ukraine by giving them all the tools they need to win — not merely not to lose, or as they say fatalistically here in the third year of a war of attrition, “die a slow death.”

If not, Biden will have a Chicken Kiev sequel to finish out his presidency. His choice.

Politico was not alone. Last week, The Economist, also called out the Biden administration for forcing Ukraine to fight with its hands tied.

A group of European Parliament members has sent a letter to President Biden, urging him to lift the restrictions: “As leaders of Europe, we cannot stand by while this war rages on, with innocent lives lost daily. Time and again, we have seen that only firm and decisive action can push back Russian forces and bring this conflict closer to an end. In moments of crisis, the United States has always stood with Europe, and we ask for that same solidarity now.”

Not only European parliamentary members, but several high-ranking members of the Democratic Party have also been pleading with the administration to lift the restrictions. So far, however, President Biden and his team refuse to heed these calls. The delay has already done much to benefit Putin and his army. It has given them time to adjust their posture, plan their response, and gain the breathing room they need. While Putin has gained, Ukraine continues to lose for no logical reason.

Due to the inordinate delays introduced by Biden and Sullivan in relaxing the restrictions, they should be forced to fully lift them. There should be no distance-based limitations or any “you can do this” or “you cannot do this” disclaimers attached to the policy change, whenever it comes.

We are already in the last ten days of September, and in another 11 days, billions in Presidential drawdown authority granted by the U.S. Congress is set to expire. The State Department has added an extension request to the Continuing Resolution (CR) bill to fund the government. The extension will likely pass, and I also expect the Biden-Sullivan administration to approve a large Ukraine aid package to reduce the pressure on them.

They have pulled this trick many times in the past. When the pressure mounts, they send a big package, loaded with low-end weapons that inflate the dollar value of the aid. Then they come out swinging, arguing that they have given so much to Ukraine. But now is not the time to fall for this trick.

The cost of this war has soared due to the delayed delivery of large quantities of low-end weapons. There was no need to spend so much if all President Biden wants is a draw.

Europe and Ukraine are standing closer than ever, while the United States is starting to drift. Biden has four months left to correct the course.

If he doesn’t, as Matthew Kaminski, Politico’s editor-at-large, warned, “Biden will have a Chicken Kiev sequel to finish out his presidency. His choice”.

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