Tracking French President Macron’s Words on Ukraine
Is he for real?
On February 16th, 2024, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a security pact with the French government in Paris, following similar agreements with the United Kingdom and Germany.
The agreement included a French pledge of up to €3 billion in aid for 2024, following expenditures of €1.7 billion in 2022 and €2.1 billion in 2023. After lingering at the ‘nowhere to be found’ position on the list of nations aiding Ukraine, France has gradually ascended to the ninth position among nearly 50 nations worldwide.
The political impact of French President Emmanuel Macron’s words has been immense. In three short months, he erased a ton of self-imposed western red lines. He did say he wanted to confuse Vladimir Putin and keep him guessing about what Europe will or won’t do for Ukraine. And he delivered much more than that.
When he argued that he is not averse to sending French troops to Ukraine, many people did not believe it was true, and many said no one in Europe would be ready to embrace the French position. But that is exactly what has happened. Poland is now in talks with Kyiv and other allies discussing options for using their Patriot systems to defend western Ukrainian territories adjacent to the Polish border.
Czech President Petr Pavel said that he is in favor of exploring new ways to support Ukraine, including potentially sending troops for “non-combat engagement.” Estonia is also open to this idea.
One by one, after initially balking at the proposal, smaller nations have come forward to embrace the French President’s unexpected call. The meltdown Russian propagandists had, as well as the steady ramp of personal attacks on the French President, provide enough evidence to conclude that Macron’s gambit in the political space worked really well.
Macron riled up the Kremlin, and he also stirred up Europe.
Now, that leaves us in a familiar hole. What is the status of the promised French aid for Ukraine? A security pact for €3 billion is better than last year, but will it be enough to make life a bit safer for Ukrainian soldiers?
Unfortunately, the French effort to rally for Ukraine is a complex phenomenon. We do have to unpack a whole lot of things to see and understand where France is headed.
France currently leads the artillery coalition launched to help Ukraine. Their effort is more focused on the launcher front, as the procurement and manufacturing of artillery shells continues to be scattered across Europe and the United States. Both are ramping up production, but reaching the level of capacity that Ukraine needs — to reach the 120,000 to 200,000 shells per month mark can only be achieved sometime around the end of this year. It is possible to reach this goal in the last quarter.
France had just 75 Caesar Howitzers in its possession at the start of the war. They sent 30 units last year and pledged 78 units this year. They have ramped up the manufacturing of the Caesar Howitzers from 2 units per month in 2022 to 6 units per month in 2023, and currently, they are producing 12 units per month.
2 to 6 to 12
They are sending 3,000 artillery shells to Ukraine every month. I know it sounds like a joke. On decent days, Ukraine will exhaust France’s month-long supply in half a day. France never really invested in shell production, and that is what is showing now.
They have placed an order worth 1 billion Euros with powder and explosives manufacturer Eurenco in the last six months. They are setting up the production chain to get going. It will take a while to ramp up production. So, don’t expect France to send a whole lot of artillery shells to Ukraine. But they can help Ukraine with the howitzer supply.
Combined with Ukraine’s own Bohdana Self-Propelled Howitzers, which are produced at a rate of 10 units per month, France and Ukraine have a combined production capacity of 22 artillery units per month. It will increase a bit more before the end of this year.
That is 264 units in a year.
On the missile front, France has provided Ukraine with a fair package. They have supplied SCALP missiles with a range of around 250 kilometers. Additionally, they have given Ukraine CROTALE, MISTRAL, and ASTER missiles.
CROTALE is a “short-range surface-to-air missile system developed to intercept airborne ranged weapons and aircraft, from cruise or anti-ship missiles to helicopters, UAVs or low-flying high-performance fighter aircraft”. Mistral is an “infrared homing short-range air defense system,” and ASTER missiles are the ones fired from the SAMP/T air defense system.
So, on the air defense front, France has provided practically the entire spectrum of products from its arsenal, ranging from short to long-range air defense systems.
How many missiles were delivered to Ukraine? I have no idea because France has withheld this information. But considering the number of SAMP/T systems available in Europe, which is less than ten, I suspect France themselves do not have enough of these systems. If they don’t have enough systems, then there is an extremely high likelihood that they don’t have enough missiles either.
This probably explains why the Defense Minister of France kept threatening missile manufacturing companies with legal intervention if they did not ramp up production. He threatened for a while and finally followed through on April 29th.
France has ordered firms involved in production of Aster air defence missiles to prioritise those contracts, Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Monday.
It was “the first time” he had used special powers to compel queue-jumping for defence orders, meaning “civilian orders must from now on have lower priority,” Lecornu said in Calvi, Corsica, where he was meeting his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto.
An order worth €1 billion was placed in January this year by the French government with MBDA to manufacture short-range and long-range Aster missiles.
Together with Italy, France is planning to hasten the development and subsequent production of next-gen SAMP/T systems according to defense minister Sébastien Lecornu.
On top of these missiles, France is also sending 50 AASM Hammer Glide bombs per month to Ukraine. I saw reports that stated they are now trying to integrate these bombs into F16s. Depending on the bomb size, these bombs can reach up to 70 kilometers.
Their accuracy is something to behold. With GPS guidance, the circular error probability (50% of the time the missile will fall within this range) is 5 to 10 meters. With laser guidance, it comes down to less than 5 meters. Pinpoint hitters. It’s an excellent weapon that can be used by fighter jets to disrupt the enemy frontline.
So, where does this leave Ukraine?
To be honest, not in a great place right now.
The good news is President Macron did not mislead us. He was serious, and his actions, the flow of orders to the right places, show his intent is genuine. France is sending what it can to Ukraine, but it’s going to be a drop in the bucket. Way less than what Ukraine needs to stop the Russians.
Unlike Germany and the United States, France did not shy away from sending high-end weapons. They did not send a lot of weapons to Ukraine because they did not have what is needed by Ukraine in large quantities.
Just take the Ceaser guns for example. These guns are working well in Ukraine. But when the war started France was building just 2 units a month. Now it is up at 12. This story repeats itself in all the other sectors.
I was of the opinion that the French are a great military power. In terms of sophistication, they are. But in terms of production capacity and the ability to sustain a long war, they are nowhere near where I thought they would be.
Those were the mistakes that France is now trying to fix, and in the process, they will also end up helping Ukraine. So, I do not expect French support to materially change Ukraine’s fortunes in the near term. It does have its impact because certain capabilities that they have provided are helping Ukraine and will continue to do so.
The decision to supply the long-range air-launched SCALP missiles, along with Great Britain, is a great tool in Ukraine’s arsenal that has helped them immensely. The ramp-up of Aster missile production, which is at the forefront of French efforts, will also aid Ukraine, as Italy is expected to send one more SAMP/T air-defense system to Ukraine.
In total, Ukraine will have three SAMP/T units (two were already supplied).
France is on the right direction.
France is sincere about helping Ukraine but faces limitations due to its production capacity. While their aid may not be enough to turn the tide in the near future, it will likely benefit Ukraine in the long run and help France improve its own military capabilities.
They were one year late into this process.
But better late than never.
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