Two Weeks to Early Voting: Senate Majority Still Up for Grabs

GOP likely to win

From now until November 5th, I will release my forecasts and nationwide analysis every 14 days. Doing it daily would be somewhat pointless and would hinder our ability to properly absorb the changes. Yesterday, I shared my forecasts for this year’s presidential race along with the reasoning behind them. Today, we’ll take an objective look at the state of the Senate race in 2024.

Democrats are facing a very challenging map this year. They are defending multiple swing states, as well as seats in red states that consistently vote for the GOP in presidential races. In stark contrast, all the states the GOP is defending are what you would call safe red states.

Thankfully, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu chose not to throw his hat into the Senate race. Had he done so, Democrats would have faced yet another challenge.

As you can see, Democrats entered the 2024 Senate race with eight vulnerable states, all of which are winnable for Republicans. Meanwhile, Democrats have no easy pickup opportunities from the Republican side, as they are competing in solid red states — the…