Ukraine, 16 km Away from taking control of the South
A few weeks ago, one of my readers asked me if it is possible for Ukraine to reach the Sea of Azov before the snow freezes the ground. I did not have an answer then; it was more of a yes, no… hmmm… maybe.
In the last 48 hours, the answer to that question has arrived from the actions of the Russian army in occupied Ukraine. The Russian army is in a mad scramble to reposition their troops.
After losing two key villages on the left flank of Bakhmut, the Russian army has repositioned some of its troops in the Bakhmut sector to the ever-growing Ukrainian bulge near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia. The Russian reinforcements have yet to stop the Ukrainian advance, as Ukraine continues to advance in the Robotyne axis almost every week.
A few hours ago, the ISW confirmed Ukraine’s steady advance near Robotyne: “Ukrainian forces have likely made a significant tactical breach along a section of the current Russian defense layer in the #Robotyne area over the past several weeks, which they continue to widen.”
It was great news, but I was more interested in digging deeper into the following statement: “Ukrainian officials have indicated that the series of Russian defensive positions currently ahead of the Ukrainian advance may be less challenging than the initial Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces broke through to the north.
RU forces had concentrated most of their combat power at those forward-most RU defensive positions to defend against UKR attacks, and these RU forces have likely suffered heavy losses and conducted fighting withdrawals to prepared positions behind the current defensive layer.”
For a very, very long time, I held the view that Russia does not have unlimited manpower to feed its destruction machine in Ukraine. My conviction stemmed from economic reasons more than anything else. Irrespective of the size of the population, an economy under duress will not be able to continuously draw resources from its workforce to feed its war machine. Every resource lost in…