Ukraine, a Nation without a Navy, Enforces a Naval Blockade
History is not written by itself.
“I heard a quarter of the navy’s gone,” I mentioned. “No, it’s half,” my friend argued. We went back and forth for a while until my friend shook his head and said, “Whatever the number, this isn’t even a navy anymore.” He then pulled out a story from Navalnews, showing how the Russian Black Sea fleet is not able to protect its own supply lines in the Black Sea.
I kept staring at him as I reached for his phone to read the story:
“In late February two Russian government ships did something highly unusual. The transport ship Sparta-IV and tanker Yaz were sailing from the Russian base at Tartus in Syria towards the Black Sea. These ships are generally used to transport military assets. Sparta-IV has previously been used to ship S-300 missile systems from Syria to Russia, and Yaz is the sister ship of Sig which was hit by Ukrainian maritime drones on August 5 2023”.
According to analysts at Navalnews, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is “no longer in control of the Black Sea like it was at the start of the 2022 invasion. Its Black Sea supply lines, relying on ships like Sparta-IV, have had to be escorted. Now they are avoiding the route altogether, adding weeks to the supply lines”.
Last week, after Ukraine’s naval drones sank the patrol ship ‘Sergey Kutov’ at the entrance of the Kerch Strait, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has not entered the Black Sea.
“In the Sea of Azov, one ship of the enemy’s fleet remains on combat duty. In the Black Sea, we do not record them on duty for four days. Missile carriers ships have been at their bases for 20 days in a row,” reported the press service of the command of the South Defense Forces of Ukraine on March 9th, 2024.
That’s a naval blockade.
Russian Black Sea Fleet is in fear of the Black Sea.
Why containing and constraining the Russian Black Sea Fleet is important?
Because Ukraine needs to make money, they must earn their bread by exporting their products through the Black Sea. It is the only way they can keep their economy humming.
Without a healthy economy, Ukraine will always be dependent on its Western allies for military and humanitarian aid. For example, when the allies struggled to find a way to adequately supply the much-needed artillery shells for Ukraine, they used their own money to place a direct order with European manufacturers for 350,000 artillery shells.
If they were fully reliant on Western aid for everything, they would never be able to make decisions like this on their own. They would forever be on bended knee. Ukraine’s economic viability is entirely dependent on protecting its maritime trading routes running through the Black Sea. Russia positioned its Black Sea Fleet primarily to stymie this movement of goods through the Black Sea, and they had plenty of success for a very long time.
Ukraine kept chipping away at the Russian Black Sea Fleet, one ship here, one ship there, and the numbers kept piling up. I still think only a quarter of the Black Sea fleet is gone in terms of the number of units. But, as my friend argued, what kind of navy is it if it cannot protect its own supply route in the Black Sea?
I have always maintained the following as the order of Ukraine’s offensive priorities:
- Russian Black Sea Fleet
- Russian Air Force
- Russian Ground Forces
That order will remain the same until the war is over. My reasoning is not complicated. Ukraine needs to keep the Black Sea Fleet under stress. It is the only way they can continue exporting goods, protect their economy, and move towards independence. The Russian air force has to be kept in check because without air superiority, neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to advance. And finally, the ground forces, because they have to be evicted.
What should Ukraine do now?
It is a naval blockade. The Russian navy is probably burning the midnight oil to figure out a way to keep going, or they may simply choose to stay away from the Black Sea altogether. They do not have great solutions, as big naval ships will always remain vulnerable to a swarm of remotely operated drones hustling towards them from multiple directions.
The Russians will most probably restrict their naval actions to the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, and the Russian port in Novorossiya.
It will complicate their supply to Crimea, as all the goods have no other choice but to flow through the Kerch Bridge. But considering the risks involved, it’s still a better trade-off.
In essence, Russia will keep its ships hidden from Ukraine’s naval drones. As a result, the regular hits we witnessed since August last year will suffer a bit of a slowdown. Ukraine cannot rest easy; they need to keep hunting the Russian ships where they can be found.
In December 26th, 2023, Novocherkassk, a large landing ship in the Russian Black Sea Fleet was sunk after being hit by Ukraine’s long range Storm Shadow missiles. Satellite imagery showed that the ship was completely destroyed. Commenting on the destruction The War Zone’s Tyler Rogoway wrote:
“Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is an outstanding anti-ship weapon when those ships are in port/fully static. Add smaller ports where air defenses are less dense (compared to Sevastopol) and then add a target that is heavily laden with high-explosives — much bigger chance at full write off and secondary damage to infrastructure (which could have a bigger impact that destroying the ship) and other ships — and you have a perfect target.”
As Ukrainian naval drones patrol the Black Sea, the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles will continue to pose a credible and menacing threat to Russian ships at port.
It’s a game of hide and seek between Ukraine and Russia over the Black Sea.
We are entering a small period of silence.
A nation without navy has completely restricted a navy.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
