Ukraine Begins Evacuating Residents from Pokrovsk
Russian Army Continues Advancing Toward the Town
The Donetsk Regional Military Administration has announced that banks will stop operating in Pokrovsk, and ATMs will function only until September 2, 2024.
“There are still 38,000 people, including about 1,900 children, in the city — all of them must evacuate to safer regions of Ukraine,” said Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Military Administration.
Despite the loss of territory in Kursk, which has forced the Russian army to redeploy around 30,000 troops, or possibly even more, to the sector, the Russian army has refused to slow down in the Donetsk region. Since capturing Avdiivka in mid-February, Russia has steadily ground its way toward Pokrovsk, a town that is a highly critical logistical node in the sector.
The Russians are just 13 kilometers away from the town. If Ukraine loses this town, it will complicate their supply routes into Donetsk, enabling Russia to threaten nearby settlements.
Once Ukraine starts losing sections of the highway that exit to the south and northeast of Pokrovsk, it will become easier for Russia to capture more land in Donetsk.
By the time the fight for Pokrovsk begins, the Russians will have moved closer to the highway, taking multiple settlements in the nearby area. If the town falls after a few months, Russia will then start pushing further out from Pokrovsk, as I have shown in the image above. They will most likely not push further north from the town, but instead, make lateral movements with the objective of capturing as much territory as possible in Donetsk Oblast.
It is still a pipe dream for Russia to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, as there is much more territory to seize. However, capturing Pokrovsk could help Russia expand its footprint in the region and serve as a significant morale booster after the humiliation they suffered in Kursk Oblast.
This leads us to the question of the day: Can Ukraine stop Russia before it gets closer to Pokrovsk?
We can all agree that Ukraine has prioritized operations in Kursk over holding the Pokrovsk sector. When there is an opportunity to take the fight to the enemy, you have to seize it, and that’s what Ukraine did. In less than a month, they have taken control of 1,000 to 1,200 square kilometers of Russian territory, captured nearly 600 Russian prisoners of war, and now have the option to seize another 1,000 square kilometers without committing too many resources.
Ukraine has a limited amount of resources that can be committed to combat. They also have several brigades that are manned but not yet fully equipped. Of the available combat troops, they have deployed a significant number to Kursk, leaving Pokrovsk somewhat vulnerable. This isn’t a manpower issue but a combat power allocation issue, forcing Ukraine to make a tough choice: Do you defend the Pokrovsk direction or go on the offensive in Kursk?
Losing Pokrovsk would make it harder for Ukraine to defend many settlements in Donetsk Oblast. However, the fight to hold Pokrovsk is not over yet. There is still some time left, as the Russians are still 13 kilometers away. But the advance in Kursk may have come to an end. Ukraine is not trying to advance any further into Kursk Oblast. They have started to dig in, which is an expected move, and I have written about this possibility multiple times before it happened.
We have confirmation of this from Russian military bloggers and the ISW:
Several Russian milbloggers claimed on August 28 that the tempo of Ukrainian attacks in Kursk Oblast has slowed and that Ukrainian forces are now attempting to dig in and hold select areas they recently seized. These milbloggers claimed the intensity of Ukrainian attacks within Kursk Oblast has decreased and that Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold and fortify select areas, amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations within the salient in Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine may have taken a risk with Pokrovsk, but as of today, they still control the town and have gained a significant amount of Russian territory. It is unfortunate that tens of thousands of residents must evacuate, and Russian shelling may reduce the town to rubble. This is the cost Ukraine has paid.
But did they really have to make this unfortunate choice?
Had the United States and Europe delivered on their promises, perhaps they would never have lost Avdiivka in the first place. Promised air defense systems have not yet arrived, and Czech-sourced artillery shells are arriving at a glacial pace. Despite the critical nature of the situation, the Biden administration released just $250 million worth of aid in August 2024 when they had access to more than $15 billion.
It’s one thing not to have money to give, as was the case for the United States in the latter half of 2023. But it’s another thing to opt for a trickle when you have a bucket.
Ukraine can still manage to hold this town, but it will depend on the level of Western support in the immediate term. If support takes too long, there is a decent chance the Russians will advance, and a pitched battle for the town may begin.
Ukraine is playing with time, and they are well aware of it. All of this sounds risky, but I believe the potential payoff is worth it. Russia’s combat power is not in a position to increase — they are struggling to hold their ground. The economy is tight, and recruiters are struggling as Putin continues to refuse a mobilization order. They are running out of heavy weapons.
Ukraine does not face the same set of issues. Their economy is growing, and thanks to the mobilization order issued in April, they are not struggling with manpower. While they would prefer to have more artillery shells, the situation is not as dire as it was earlier this year.
Ukraine’s combat power is rising, and it could increase manyfold if the West is ready to provide support. With Western help, Ukraine can manage both Kursk and Pokrovsk.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 260 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
