Ukraine Breaches the Russian Border at Kursk

But Why?

I have read Sun Tzu’s ‘The Art of War’ a couple of times. It is still beyond my mental abilities. But I do find myself going back to his opinions every now and then to understand how he may have viewed the current situation, what kind of solutions he proposes, and how they can be applied to resolve the issue we face.

It may be a book on war, but it teaches the reader the art of patience, long-term perspective, and the importance of being laser-focused on the final objective.

As I said, that book is still beyond my mental abilities. If I read it twenty years from now, I will walk away with a completely different opinion. That’s the kind of book it is.

Sun Tzu talks about the importance of surprise in war, of showing up in unexpected places. Only yesterday, I understood the scope and breadth of advantages one can extract using the element of surprise.

It is still not clear whether it was Ukrainian forces that crossed the Russian border in Kursk Oblast or Russian separatist groups working with the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate. Ukraine has denied involvement in the cross-border attacks, but open-source investigators confirm that someone crossed the border and took out Russian troops stationed inside their territory.

The attack caught everyone by surprise: the Russian army, Ukrainian military bloggers, Russian military bloggers, and the Russian troops stationed in Kursk Oblast. No one expected it, and the scale of the attack was far higher than earlier cross-border attacks mounted by Russian separatist groups operating in the border areas.

Image Credit: Deepstatemap

There is no way Ukraine could sustain this incursion. They do not have the strength to open a new front, send enough resources there, and draw Russian forces from the existing frontline. Ukrainian defensive lines are still weak in the Avdiivka sector (towards Pokrovsk). The Russians know this, as they are the ones advancing in this sector.

If that were the case, from where will Ukraine find resources to divert to capture Russian territories in the north and fight the Russian forces that will inevitably come towards them? If anyone in the world should have realized that this is a limited-scale attack with limited objectives, it must have been the Russian Ministry of Defense.

But nope.

There was full blown panic.

The Russian Ministry of Defense pressed their air force into action. What a stupid move. I don’t think even Ukraine anticipated that the Russian MoD, in its panic, would send helicopters and fighter jets to take out fast-moving ground troops. Imagine the chaos that would have ensued had Ukraine moved one of its Patriot air-defense units into range to cover the advancing ground troops. How many jets could they have brought down? Every fallen jet would have added even more pressure on the Russian forces.

In less than 24 hours, an attack that had no potential to last exposed all the weaknesses in the Russian MoD.

1. They are sitting very close to the panic button. Russian Defense Minister Belusov did not exhibit patience. I understand operational decisions must fall under General Gerasimov’s control, but this is Russia, and there is no way those jets came to Kursk without Belusov being informed about it. If he heard the request and did nothing to stop it, that is excellent news for Ukraine. The next time Ukraine launches a counter-attack, expect them to move their mobile air-defense units to cover the advancing ground troops. There will be fighter jets to knock down.
2. Russian intelligence is weak. They should have had information about this attack. At the very least, after the attack began, they should have passed on the information that this attack did not have the potential to last for very long. They should have either preempted it, or failing that, they should have had the intelligence to tell the MoD to deal with the incursion in a patient manner. But nope. These people are not advancing anywhere based on intelligence; they are testing the frontline by throwing as much as they can and piling on in areas where they see a weak response.

Why Ukraine chose this path?

I think this was a preemptive strike to test the Russian strength in the region and their ability to respond quickly. I have written multiple times in the past that you cannot rule out the possibility of Russians opening up another front further north. Their combat power is waning due to production issues and severe economic conditions.

Their best bet right now is to reduce Ukrainian combat power as much as possible before it starts to increase sharply. The Russians are advancing in one sector, but the real target is the timeline Ukraine has between mobilizing its troops, training them, and equipping them. The Russians are trying to shrink that timeline and keep it under stress. When you look at it that way, it makes a lot of sense to open up another front. You simply cannot rule out that option.

Ukraine has done the same to the Russians right now. Why wait until the Russians build out their capacity in Kursk Oblast when you can get in, take them by surprise, knock them down a peg, and hurry back? It is an ambush that exposed several key vulnerabilities on the Russian side.

As a side benefit, this attack would have thrown a huge spanner into any Russian plan to mass troops in Kursk Oblast and march towards the border. Whenever they sit for that discussion, someone is going to ask, “Oh, well, if we start building up, what are we going to do if Ukraine repeats what they did on August 6th?”

Ukraine now has all options on the table. It can keep pushing, though not too far out, while keeping an eye on the exit. It can immediately stop the attacks and return home. Alternatively, it can move air-defense units to knock out the Russian air force, destroy as much Russian combat power in the area as possible, and then withdraw. It really depends on how the Russians respond. Perhaps Ukraine should wait until Russia moves its ground forces, and once they are there, retreat.

I had no idea that showing up in places where the enemy least expects you can offer so many advantages.

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