Ukraine Breaks Russia’s momentum near Chasiv Yar
The little fortress behind Bakhmut will not fall into Russian hands on May 7th.
One month ago, Russian forces captured a small village called Ivanivske, located south of Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. Their aim was to advance towards Chasiv Yar from two directions: north through Bohdanivka and south through Ivanivske. They managed to advance about 3 kilometers from Ivanivske.
The advancing Russian line became a problem for Ukraine as the Russians could start branching out in multiple directions from it and get around Chasiv Yar, as depicted in the image below.
The Russians will continue to advance slowly, and if they manage to surround Chasiv Yar in at least two directions, the defense of the town will become a significant problem. Constant bombardment from fighter jets, coupled with the town being flanked by Russian troops from the north and south, will exacerbate the situation.
The situation is still difficult.
The ISW refused to rule out the fall of Chasiv Yar in its May 2 assessement.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated that “Ukraine is currently focusing on Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, where ISW assesses that Russian forces have the best opportunity to achieve operationally-significant gains, and that while it is “probably a matter of time” before Chasiv Yar falls, Russian forces will not seize the town “today or tomorrow.
Skibitskyi stated that Russian forces have achieved only tactical successes near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast following a recent tactical penetration northwest of the city, and ISW has noted that Russian forces remain far from any operationally-significant objective in the area and are unlikely to pose such a threat here in the near-term”.
Why is Chasiv Yar so difficult for Ukraine to hold on to?
There are two sectors that the Russians are focused on: Avdiivka and Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar is very close to Bakhmut). These two sectors are where the Russians have massed most of their best combat units. They are still advancing near Avdiivka, while their advance near Chasiv Yar remains somewhat slower in comparison.
The problem, in terms of terrain from the Ukrainian perspective, is that Chasiv Yar is a town with defined borders. Whenever there’s a clearly identifiable pocket where Ukrainian defenders are stationed statically, the Russians will use their jets to drop glide bombs. Their ground troops will surround the pocket from multiple directions, and fighter jets will unleash loads of glide bombs into it. Ukrainian defenders will struggle to hold on, eventually being forced to leave.
Ukraine needs maneuverability. They require space to move. If Russia advances closer to the border of Chasiv Yar and surrounds the town, the likelihood of the town falling into the hands of the Russians becomes slightly higher than the odds of Ukraine holding onto it.
Chasiv Yar is situated on elevated terrain, and Russian ground troops would face significant challenges in advancing. However, this isn’t the type of battle Ukraine wants to engage in. Their best strategy for holding the town is to ensure that the Russians remain at a fair distance from it.
I believe ISW forecasted that the town may fall because Ukraine is still short of ammo, and the Russians have massed themselves in the sector. The Russians do possess the firepower and manpower advantage, so if they focus their efforts and consolidate their resources, Ukraine will struggle to hold on and may result in a withdrawal.
Can Ukraine stop this from happening?
Yesterday, a Ukrainian counterattack towards Ivaniske was executed to slow down the Russian advance towards the town. As indicated by the Deepstate map below, the Russians are still holding Ivaniske. Instead of pressing on with their advance towards Chasiv Yar, the Russians will now have to respond to the Ukrainian troops and fight for their positions in Ivaniske.
It is still too early for me to lean in either direction. Ukraine is struggling with shortages of both ammunition and manpower, and it will take time to stabilize the frontlines. So, there is no guarantee that Ukraine will succeed, but there is also no guarantee that they will fail. Unfortunately, we have to take things day by day until May 15th.
The Russians would have loved to take over this town before Putin’s inauguration for the fifth time on May 7th, 2024. Thankfully, that is not going to happen. The battle for Chasiv Yar will remain intense, and the pendulum will swing in both directions before settling down in one direction.
Russians are increasing their troop strength in the north
This is something that was entirely expected of the Russians. I can’t recall exactly when I first wrote about Putin’s desperate desire to capture Kharkiv city. However, that town has always remained a target in his eyes.
The Russians have deployed a large number of troops to Belgorod Oblast and the surrounding areas.
The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on May 5 that the Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces.
Mashovets stated that the Russian military has concentrated over 31,000 troops in Belgorod Oblast; over 10,000 troops in Kursk Oblast; and over 8,000 troops in Bryansk Oblast.
It is entirely possible, and perhaps even worth the attempt, for the Russians to mount an attack from the north. However, having 50,000 troops spread over three oblasts bordering Ukraine may not have significant implications considering the size of both Ukrainian and Russian armies engaged in the battlefield.
We must remember that both armies have essentially become entrenched along the entire line of contact. The movement of Russian troops to the north, along a border stretching over 500 kilometers, will compel Ukraine to deploy additional troops from elsewhere to counter any potential attack from the north.
The Russians are attempting to stretch Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. Due to their manpower shortage, this will pose a significant challenge for Ukraine to manage. If Ukraine’s combat power, which is gradually increasing, becomes stretched, it will create vulnerabilities for the Russians to exploit and advance in certain sections.
The Russian strategy is not a bad one at all and has the potential to break the Ukrainian lines.
How can Ukraine stop this from happening?
By now, Ukraine will have clear details about the troop numbers allocated by the Russians to the north. They need to switch to a mobile defense strategy to counter Russian forces attempting to breach the north while launching attacks in at least one sector in the south and south east to draw Russian combat power there.
There are plenty of spots from which they can choose. The only challenge they face is the race against time to replenish their troops and address their manpower shortage. They need to challenge themselves to recruit more men and women every day than they lose on the battlefield.
Their force capacity must increase daily.
This will be a difficult a period to negotiate.
And as I have written on multiple occasions Ukraine may lose some territory in the process. But they need not worry about defending using their depth. Just do not lose any strategically important locations such as Klishivvka, Vulhedar and Kupiansk.
The rest they can afford to lose, and regain it later once their combat power surpasses the Russian capacity. Much will change after Ukraine receives the 1 million artillery shells, with the supply expected to begin in June.
The Russians are attempting to exploit timing. They understand that their best opportunity to break the Ukrainian lines is now, or most probably never. It’s an opportunistic decision and the right one at that. It will be on Ukraine’s shoulders to withstand this impending assault.
Ukraine has overcome the odds many times before. They survived the tank and jet parade in early 2022, and then they endured the missile barrage in winter 2022. They need to believe they can do it one more time. On both those occasions, Ukraine had no idea if they would truly survive. In early 2022, the allies were all over the place, and Ukraine had no idea if they would receive help or not. But they dug in and brought the Russian army to a standstill.
If they could achieve it when there was no clarity about the future, then they can do it now because they know the weapons they need will keep coming in.
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