Ukraine Breaks the Russian Frontline Near Terny

Are we witnessing a change of momentum?

I wish I could say with full confidence that the battlefield momentum has moved in favor of Ukraine.

However, I want to hold back a little longer before making a definitive assessment in that regard. The Ukrainian counterpunch has begun; there is no doubt about it.

The way I see the word ‘initiative,’ which is widely used in military circles, is almost the same as my understanding in politics. The side that has the ability to force the other side to react is the one that holds the initiative. It is not a one-time event but a series of events that forces the other side to remain in a reactive state.

Let us take a look at the last six months through this prism. In the first two months, the battle for Avdiivka was so intense that most of the Ukrainian energy was drawn into that sector. Ukraine then attacked Russian refineries in March, but Russia still continued its creeping advances in Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. They took some territory in Avdiivka but were fully stalled in the Chasiv Yar sector.

As a result, their objective to take control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts failed. The Russians then opened up a new front in the northeast. Ukraine responded, and the Russian secondary objective in the northeast to advance towards Kharkiv city failed.

Their primary objective, which was to weaken the Ukrainian lines defending Chasiv Yar and…