Ukraine has broken through Russian lines in Kursk, pushing the Russian army back nearly 10 kilometers in a single advance.
A cluster of Russian settlements at the frontline has been liberated.
Malaya Loknya, Novaya Sorochina, Orlovka, Pogrebki, Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, and Russkoe Porechnoe — these Russian settlements, which formed the northeasternmost frontline in Kursk, have fallen into Ukrainian hands.
The image below shows how Ukraine has expanded the Kursk frontline.
Malaya Loknya, the settlement Ukraine liberated from Putin’s dictatorship, is one of the few where Russian forces moved in to stall the Ukrainian advance. In the tweet below, you can see that the fight for control of the town was ongoing by August 20th.
After an inordinately delayed response, when Putin ordered his troops to counter Ukraine in Kursk, the Russian army moved several brigades to the Malaya Loknya-Pohrebki-Russkoe Porechnoe line. The section between the two orange lines I have drawn below.
Sadly, Ukraine did not liberate their own territory, they liberated a Russian territory. Had the Russians managed to do what the Ukrainians did yesterday and pushed their back by 8 to 10 kilometers, the American media would have been all over it questioning the wisdom of supporing Ukraine. They could have subtly hammered the message that Ukraine is losing and they are lost cause. But when Ukraine punches back the Russian forces by a depth of 10 kms, they will just shrug their shoulders.
So, don’t expect any big coverage. But do expect any losses, even if it is 100 meters, in Pokrovsk direction to be given a good glowing coverage.
What does this mean in Kursk?
I’m surprised that Ukrainian forces managed to break through the Russian resistance, especially given the time Putin had to respond. It’s been nearly a month since Ukraine advanced into Russia, seizing large areas of Russian territory. Putin had ample time to devise countermeasures, yet whatever he attempted has clearly fallen short.
Ukraine will continue to press the attack on the Kursk front. The frontline there is still not a fortified defensive barrier for Ukraine; it remains open territory. This means both sides are forced into direct, head-to-head combat. In this scenario, the side with superior mobility holds the advantage.
One crucial factor that many Western media outlets and analysts overlook is that the Russians cannot simply dig in here — they need to advance and stay on the attack. It took them five months to capture around 600 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in Donetsk Oblast, and that was during a particularly vulnerable moment for Ukraine, which was just beginning to recover from shortages of weapons and manpower.
Now, the situation has changed. Ukraine has the upper hand in mobility on the Kursk battlefield. With nearly 2,000 square kilometers under Ukrainian control, direct and indirect, the current Russian forces in the area stand little chance of dislodging them. Each day that passes without driving the Ukrainians out makes it increasingly difficult for the Russians to do so. Ukraine will continue to wear down Russian forces gradually, piece by piece.
I had anticipated the frontline in Kursk would stabilize, with movement coming to a halt over the next few weeks. However, it seems the Russian lines are still very weak, and Putin is not reinforcing the sector. This only strengthens Ukraine’s position. Ukraine must keep up the pressure — not necessarily by pushing deeper, but by targeting all Russian territory within a 50–60 km range of the Ukrainian border. There’s no need to rush and expand at the breakneck pace seen in the first week of August when they entered Kursk.
The strategy should be a slow, steady grind: expanding Ukraine’s footprint while pressuring Putin to divert more troops to Kursk. Lower the intensity of fighting in Ukraine and increase it within Russia.
It may be hard to believe, but the Russians seem to be expecting to lose more of their own territory. They’re already building trenches miles away from the current frontlines.
If the Russians are forced to retreat to the trench lines they’re building, it would leave Ukraine in control of more than twice the amount of Russian territory they currently hold. This would serve as a valuable bargaining chip if and when the Russians decide to wave the white flag.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 266 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
