Ukraine Tightens Noose Around Russian Troops on Vovcha River Front
There is a river, there is a rail and there is a road
I cannot shake the memories of the Avdiivka stronghold slowly falling into the hands of Kremlin’s invaders. The Ukrainian forces, struggling with artillery, ammunition, and manpower, could not manage to defend it against the relentless onslaught of Russian forces.
The terrain, positions, and troop capacities of both sides in Vovchansk are vastly different, but for some reason, the events unfolding in this little town at the farthest end of Russian occupation in the northeast sector keep reminding me of the battle for Avdiivka. In reverse.
Conquering Avdiivka was one of the Kremlin’s main objectives last year. Conquering Vovchansk is one of Ukraine’s main objectives this year.
There is a small list of reasons why Ukraine is hell-bent on driving the Russians out of this village. Let us start with the first one.
As you can see from the image above, there is a major road and a rail route that connect the Russian city of Belgorod with Ukraine’s Kupiansk. Both the rail line and the road cross through Vovchansk.
When the Russians chose to invade through the northeast, they had a solid plan in place. Their selection of targets was indeed spot-on and aligned well with their objective of setting themselves up to capture Kharkiv city — either immediately or in the future.
The Russians tried to advance in the northeast towards Kharkiv city by keeping the rivers to their left and right. At the extreme right and left of this advance were the villages of Vovchansk and Hybloke. If the Russians settle in this area holding Vovchansk, they will establish a proper supply route with Belgorod, which can then be gradually expanded all the way to Kupiansk.
The Russians have been trying to advance towards Kupiansk for more than two years and have consistently failed. Years of fighting in the area have resulted in both sides settling into their lines. This is a heavily fortified section, and both sides barely move due to the dense troop presence.
However, the section behind Kupiansk, shaded in green in the image above, does not have fortified towns in its way. After capturing and settling down in Vovchansk, the Russians will likely try to advance in two directions.
If you asked me to capture Kharkiv and Kupiansk, this would have been my most preferred option. It offers numerous advantages. Even if it fails to fully achieve the objectives, just having troop presence in the area and making it contested will allow me to keep threatening the safety of both Kharkiv and Kupiansk in the future.
Ukraine understands this logic, which explains why they are going hammer and tongs against the Russian forces ordered to capture Vovchansk. In the past week, Ukraine has pushed the Russian forces back in Vovchansk.
Fierce fighting is ongoing at the Aggregate plant, which is now surrounded by Ukrainian forces.
The ISW reported this today:
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that around 200 Russian soldiers, including dead and wounded, are currently isolated in the Aggregate Plant after Russian forces tried to cross the Vovcha River east of the plant on an unspecified date and entered the plant after coming under Ukrainian fire.
One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control “most” of the Aggregate Plant.[35] Another Russian milblogger claimed in a since-deleted Telegram post that Russian forces did not control the plant, however.
What is Ukraine trying to do?
Ukrainian forces are trying to squeeze the Russians into a small pocket with the Vovcha river to their back. You can see their plan in the image below.
This is an extremely bad situation for the Russians. The fact that Ukraine has covered their frontline, an area of nearly half a square kilometer, makes it extremely difficult for any Russian troops that get pushed into the pocket.
Ukraine will be able to hit the Russian supply routes moving reinforcements into this pocket. Russia will face two choices: either they have to keep pouring more and more resources into this death trap, or find a way to counter-attack and advance. They need to push the Ukrainians back; otherwise, they will keep losing men, equipment and territory.
Both options will lead to only one outcome: Russia will have to pay an astronomical price to defend their front in Vovchansk. The moment Ukraine dislodges the Russians in the pocket, they will gain access to a large section of the Vovcha River.
Can you see how important this extremely vulnerable pocket is for the Russian forces? If Ukraine pushes the Russians out of this pocket, they will have a clear view of the entire stretch of Russian forces in Vovchansk.
That is why this mini battle at the Vovchansk front is so crucial. The momentum in this section is currently with the Ukrainian forces. I have no doubt that both sides are paying an extremely heavy price to gain control.
The Russian forces surprisingly lost slightly over 5,000 troops in the last five days.
- 16 June: 1080
- 15 June: 1160
- 14 June: 1090
- 13 June: 1250
- 12 June: 980
I can’t believe I am normalizing the loss of 1,000 soldiers per day. Britannica says nearly 15,000 Soviet troops died in its ten-year war in Afghanistan. Every week has been a record-breaking week for the Russians. This week may not be as extreme, but given the developments in the northeast, Russia has no choice but to pay an extremely heavy price if they want to hold the line — or slowly withdraw to conserve their troop capacity.
I am not sure what they are going to do. Both choices are very bad for them. If they choose conservation mode now, Ukraine will gain full control of the Vovcha River in this section. That means their entire northeast occupation will remain exposed, and they will have to pay a heavy price later. If they choose to defend the line by pouring in everything they have, they will continue losing well above 1,200 troops every day, which means they will exhaust their current resources in the section in a matter of weeks.
I am not sure. Let’s see what they do.
If the plan is so good, then why is it failing for the Russians?
It’s the same reason why the Russian plan to conquer Kyiv in three days failed: if you want to win a war, you have to get truly on top in the first 100 hours. It’s an extremely critical period. So, the Russian plan to topple Kyiv in three days was the only way they could have won. The plan was right, but the execution not so much.
They could not execute their plans because they severely overestimated their own abilities and underestimated Ukraine’s abilities. After the blitz to raid Kyiv in the first 48 hours disastrously failed, the Kremlin had no backup plan. Facing humiliation, they ordered Russians to keep attacking. And they took out a tank parade towards Kyiv. Their army was overstretched. They started losing ground near Kyiv and were forced to withdraw.
As the Russians lost momentum, Ukraine little by little created a continuous mobile defense to stall the Russians. I think it was somewhere around July 2022 when the frontline started to become extremely static. Ukraine advanced, liberated a few sections in October-November 2022. Russia won Bakhmut in May 2023, then Avdiivka in February 2024 and some amount of territory in the last couple of months. In terms of percentage, the amount of territory that exchanged hands after the first three months of the war is very little.
So, both sides are trying many different things to break this stalemate. The Russian plan to open a front in the northeast is a great idea and it can hand them Kharkiv city and ultimately lead to victory if Russia had the strength to do so and Ukraine did not have the strength to stop it from happening.
The Russian plan now looks like an act of desperation. I think it is an act of desperation. They are trapped and they have no freaking way out of this. If they lose the battle for the northeast, they will lose the option to convince the West to let them go.
Putin may have committed the worst mistake after listening to the worst advice. Let us not jump the gun here. We have been in this spot before, where Ukraine, through blood, sweat, tears, and lives, gained an upper hand, only to see them withered away by the controllers sitting in far-off lands. Incremental supply of weapons has stalled their momentum so many times in the past.
Ukraine is sitting on a gold mine of an opportunity. I don’t know how many times I wrote Ukraine should not counter-attack during the month of March, April, and May when it became clear that Western weapons would start to flow into their warehouses. I am changing that assessment due to the developments on the field.
The Russians are caught in a trap. One from which they cannot withdraw. Ukraine should send everything and anything it can find into this sector. They need to keep the Russians on the back foot. If the West can make sure that they keep this army supplied and well-stocked for even the next three months, this battle will turn decisive as Russia will end up losing an enormous amount of combat power in the sector.
The Russians do not have established fortified lines in this section. That and that alone is enough to put Russia on a path of progressive decline, where each week they become weaker than the previous one.
Absolutely doable.
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