Ukraine Knocks Out a Russian Missile Carrier stationed in Kaliningrad
One more red line goes for a toss
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed responsibility without claiming responsiblity for disabling Serpukhov, a Russian missile carrier stationed in Kaliningrad. The GUR released video footage of an explosive detonating in the control room of the Russian corvette. That was it. There wasn’t much detail other than the video, allowing us to draw our own conclusions.
The important message that got delivered through the attack was that Russian assets are not safe anywhere in the world.
Not in Africa. Not in the Black Sea. Not in the Baltic Sea.
“Due to its location, the attack is likely to have more of a psychological impact than any impact on the course of the war”, remarked Radio Free Europe, one of the leading platforms that specialize on news from behind the Iron Curtain.
The Project 21631 ships, including the Serpukhov and referred to as Buyan-M, serve as nimble missile carriers. Their compact size and displacement make them adept at operating within inland river systems. Another significant advantage of the Buyan series stems from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty’s constraints. While the treaty prohibits land-based medium-range missiles, it imposes no such limitations on sea-based deployments. Consequently, a small missile carrier like the Buyan-M can deploy such missiles without being restricted by the treaty’s restrictions.
Ukraine is not going to be worried about the ship’s ability to fire nuclear weapons, but this is one of the ships using which Russia can launch its Kalibr missiles.
So, taking it off the functioning list does help.
Moreover, it also conveys a significant message to the U.S. National Security Team led by Jake Sullivan, which operates with an extensive list of redlines. They continually update this list with great frequency, specifying prohibitions such as no rocket launchers, no tanks, no fighter jets, no air- defense, no drone attacks inside Russia, and no drone attacks on oil refineries. These are among the red lines they have revised over the past two years.
Now, they need to make another update. Ukraine has attacked a Russian military asset outside the Black Sea, yet Putin did not escalate the war.
I don’t understand.
How can you escalate something when you have already utilized everything within your possession?
Russia deployed its entire military to invade Ukraine. This was two years ago. Now, they are rebuilding the military through repeated conscription efforts. They are retrieving and refurbishing everything that had been sitting idle in storage, retrofitting it for use. Their financial situation is in such disarray that they instructed people to fend for themselves when heating systems broke down this winter. Recently, when a dam broke in Russia’s Orenburg region, the Kremlin scarcely lifted a finger to aid the struggling Russians who were drowning in the flood.
This is the current situation in Russia. However, the National Security Advisor of the United States, Mr. Jake Sullivan, believes that Russia might resort to nuclear action against the United States if they provide excessive assistance to Ukraine.
I am not joking.
Listen to GOP Congressman Michael McCaul. He isn’t just any GOP congressman; he is the chair of the Republican House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“Jake [Sullivan] is — he’s overly cautious. And he’s bought into this notion that, well, if we give them [Ukrainians] too much, then Russia’s going to use a tactical nuke on us. Well, most intelligence I’ve seen is they’re not going to do that. The crazy thing is, all the stuff he worried about, has now been agreed to, we’re putting it in there. It’s just that it’s too little, too late.”
Unbelievable.
The National Security Advisor of the United States believes that Russia might resort to using nuclear weapons against the United States, specifically a tactical nuke rather than a conventional one.
How did he come to that conclusion precisely? What sort of launch vehicles does Russia intend to use to deliver tactical nukes to target a U.S. asset? Are they going to rely on individuals with bags?
And what will the United States do? Sit idly by and watch until Russia, financially strained, struggling to keep its black sea fleet afloat, has no idea how to fly its fighter jets against Patriot air-defense systems, finds a genius way to some how launch an attack 4,500 miles away?
They couldn’t even touch Kyiv with a single Patriot system equipped with sufficient missiles.
I hope he’s aware of the news that more than half of the missiles fired by the Russians fail to reach their intended targets. In fact, a significant number of them don’t even launch.
The United States possesses intelligence agencies specifically tasked with ensuring that individuals in positions of power make informed decisions.
Just last week, French President Emmanuel Macron reminded the Russians not to forget that NATO possesses nuclear weapons.
French President Emmanuel Macron, responding to Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s new threats regarding Russia’s readiness for nuclear war, has stated that France is a “nuclear power” and it is inappropriate to make such threats when “you have nuclear weapons”.
In case the national security apparatus in the United States missed it, Vladimir Putin remained silent after the French President responded to his nuclear threats. France is currently dispatching fifty AASM Hammer Glide Bombs to Ukraine every month. These missiles have inflicted significant damage on some of the Russian frontline positions. They will soon become the preferred weapon for targeting Russian command posts.
The entire Russian military unit in Crimea and the Black Sea fleet is acutely aware of the substantial losses incurred due to the long-range missiles supplied by Great Britain and France. Despite this, Putin refrained from deploying tactical nukes against Great Britain and France. As far as I’m aware, the only ones discussing the use of nuclear weapons against allies are Russian propagandists. Perhaps if I spent a lot of time watching Rusian state TV, I might begin to believe their story.
However, I do not watch them.
Good lord.
On October 2, the National Security Advisor of the United States wrote the following:
“Although the Middle East remains beset with perennial challenges. The region is quieter than it has been for decades.”
He wrote this five days before Hamas launched the worst attack on Isreal in history.
In the final two weeks of April and the first two weeks of May 2023, the Patriot air-defense system provided to Ukraine successfully countered every challenge the Russians threw at it.
Salvo after salvo.
Russians tried everything in the book and outside the book to bring down the Patriots guarding Kyiv. Ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles. Missiles at volume. Fired from mutiple launch vechicles from multiple directions. Fired all of them in a small time window. The result was the same. Every single Russian missile was blown apart.
The Russians were sent reeling. They arrested the scientists who built the hyped up Kinzhal missiles. I am not sure which one came first. Missiles or the hype?
You know what I would have done the day after Russia’s failed May 16, 2023 attack on the Patriot air-defense systems? I would have immediately called Raytheon and initiated preparations to secure a significant number of orders. I would have asked them about their requirements to enhance both system and missile production rates, offering any assistance necessary.
I would have also set up a team to monitor their progress.
I would have told them that if the United States could develop a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic, saving millions of lives, then surely we can ramp up Patriot system production two or threefold within a year to also save millions of lives. If I were plagued by recurring nuclear nightmares, I would counterbalance them with steadfast, patriotic dreams of deterrence.
If necessary, I would have convinced my boss to order Raytheon to adopt a war footing. The Defense Production Act of 1950 provides the President of the United States with a broad set of authorities to influence domestic industry in the interest of national defense. It can be invoked in times of war or national emergency to prioritize and allocate resources, materials, and services necessary for national defense. This includes ordering private businesses to prioritize contracts or fulfill orders deemed necessary for national security or emergency response efforts.
That sounds like national security 101 to me.
But do you know where the current production rate of the one system the entire world couldn’t get enough of stands? It’s in the same place it was 30 years ago. Two years after the outbreak of the worst war of our generation.
There is one more item you need to take a look at.
According to security columnist Colby Badhwar, “Switzerland signed a $1.6 billion FMS Letter of Offer & Acceptance for 5 Patriot batteries in September, 2022. This was after they spent 6 months blocking third party transfer requests to send ammo & equipment to Ukraine. The Biden Admin should have absolutely revoked that LOA”.
One of our allies has been trying to send air-defense missiles and other Patriot-related equipment to Ukraine. However, this effort has been obstructed by Switzerland, due to the agreement signed in September 2022. Firstly, it was a mistake to allow this situation to occur in the first place. With a war ongoing in Europe, it’s imperative to bolster our own defenses and be ready to provide as much assistance as possible to nations closer to the frontline.
Poland, yes.
Switerland, no. Can you please get to the end of the line….please.
Give them a discount, if needed.
But the list, who comes first, who is in the middle and who comes last, has to remain firmly in control of the U.S. National Security team.
Secondly, if a request had been made to redirect those systems and elevate Ukraine on the priority list, then that action should have been taken. As Colby Badhwar asserts, “The Biden Admin should have absolutely revoked that LOA”.
Is this President Biden’s job?
Absolutely not.
Whose job it is then?
President Biden needs to fire his national security adviser and several other senior leaders who oversaw the botched execution of our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
— Brett Bruen, Ex. Obama Advisor and a former U.S. diplomat
