Ukraine: Frontline on Fire

Russia ramps up its counter attacks

Shankar Narayan

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Russian military intensifies its counteroffensive against Ukrainian locations. (Licensed Image)

3,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers killed.

7,000 to 8,000 wounded.

The recent update from Avdiivka’s mayor, Vitaliy Barabash, was quite surprising. It made me pause to consider whether it’s Ukraine or Russia shaping the situation in Avdiivka, making it resemble the ongoing conflict in Bakhmut.

After some thought, I deduced that Ukraine is the driving force here, as they have several strategies to counter Russia’s aggression in Avdiivka:

Ukraine could opt for a gradual retreat from Avdiivka, allowing Russian forces to occupy the town and temporarily regroup before they move to another location. Alternatively, Ukraine might escalate their counteroffensive in areas like Robotyne, Bakhmut, or Kherson. While this approach would increase their operational expenses, it could effectively impede Russian activities in Avdiivka.

However, Ukraine didn’t choose either of these paths. Instead, they decided to staunchly defend Avdiivka and launch counterattacks to reclaim lost territories in the region. This approach sends a definitive signal to Russia that Ukraine isn’t withdrawing. The outcome, as reported by Avdiivka’s mayor, has been a substantial loss for Russia in a very short period of time.

In just a month since Russia commenced its attacks on Avdiivka, the conflict has escalated rapidly. Russia has reportedly suffered the loss of over 10,000 soldiers and numerous heavy vehicles. The battle in Avdiivka is shaping up to surpass the already high toll experienced by both parties in the ongoing Bakhmut conflict.

Notwithstanding the towering losses in Avdiivka, Putin’s army has decided to ramp up their attacks all over the frontline. From Kreminna in eastern Ukraine, the Russian forces have walked out of their trenches all the way till Velyka Novosilka in Southern Ukraine.

That’s a lot of distance to cover and lot of resources to spend.

Russia shifted its military strategy after North Korea shipped a significant amount of ammunition by train in early October. It is entirely possible that, confident in their ammunition stockpile, Russian generals decided to deploy all available resources to see what would be…

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Shankar Narayan

Lov stats and hate status-quo. Forecasted all the states Biden won in 2020. Correctly forecasted the twin Georgia elections in 2021, House and Senate in 2022.