Ukraine + Germany — United States = Bad news for the Kremlin
A very bad news for the Kremlin
It is frustrating to watch the Biden administration slow-walk the aid supply to Ukraine. The Patriot air-defense system they promised remains undelivered. Despite billions set to expire in three weeks, they announced a $250 million aid package on September 5th, 2024.
This package included crucial equipment like Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, and Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles — things that Ukraine desperately needs to batter the Kremlin.
Mobility is king in this battle.
The United States has:
How much does it cost?
Using $1 billion in Presidential drawdown authority, the United States could send 133 Bradleys, 750 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, and 267 MRAPs. Do this two or three times in six months, and the Kremlin would pack its bags and run, as Ukraine could expand its footprint in Kursk, push into Belgorod, and possibly even threaten Bryansk. This would force the Kremlin to redeploy troops from Ukraine back to Russia.
It’s frustrating. I even wondered for a moment why I should bother covering the $250 million aid package the United States just announced. It feels almost pointless. But in the end, I decided to cover it because not doing so felt wrong.
The United States could change the course of this war in a matter of weeks, but they won’t. If it’s this frustrating for someone just covering the war, imagine the heartburn Ukraine and Europe must be feeling, watching Washington, D.C. pine for a reset with Putin.
The process of leaving the United States in the rearview mirror started a while ago, and it’s only gaining speed.
Germany has already delivered one Patriot air-defense unit to Ukraine this year. Romania has given final clearance to send one of its batteries to Ukraine, with all the red tape cleared; only packaging remains. Germany is set to deliver 58 units of the state-of-the-art RCH 155 howitzers to Ukraine before the end of this year.
Additionally, they have ordered 17 IRIS-T air defense systems for Ukraine, on top of the four units still to be delivered this year. By 2026, Ukraine will have a total of 24 IRIS-T air defense systems — half medium-range units and half short-range.
By the end of this year, the United States will reach an artillery production rate of 960,000 shells per year, while German defense manufacturer Rheinmetall will hit a production rate of 700,000 shells annually. The gap between U.S. and German artillery production is closing quickly.
Moreover, “Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain will co-produce up to 1,000 Patriot GEM-T missiles in Germany”.
Artillery shells, air-defense missiles, and electronic warfare systems are the three critical dependencies Ukraine and Europe still have on the United States. It’s this dependency that still allows President Biden and his team to control the war from a distance.
I’m not sure what Europe will do regarding electronic warfare systems, but the reliance on the U.S. for artillery shells and air-defense missiles will soon come to an end.
Many thanks to President Biden. Perhaps he’s a genius teacher who pushed his student to surpass him. Two and a half years ago, Germany was in a tough spot. They relied on Russia for over half their gas, and their annual artillery production was a mere 100,000 shells. The RCH 155 howitzer, which I can’t praise enough, was just a prototype, as was their IRIS-T air-defense system. They had a decent number of Patriot air-defense batteries but relied heavily on the U.S. for air-defense missiles.
Fast forward to today: Germany’s artillery production rate is rapidly approaching that of the U.S., and with a little more effort, they could surpass it. They’re producing IRIS-T air defense systems at an impressive pace, and Ukraine reports these systems have a spotless performance record in the field. While they still need the U.S. to supply Patriot air-defense batteries, Germany can now buy them outright. They don’t need future Trumps or Bidens to send them air-defense missiles — Germany has its own facility to produce them.
Two areas they still need to address are restarting production of the Taurus missile, which has been stalled by politics, weakening Germany’s deterrence capabilities, and investing in the development of a land-attack missile. They talk about it but haven’t made any significant moves.
Aside from these two long-term goals, Germany has made remarkable progress. This has greatly reduced Europe’s dependency on the U.S.
By 2025, with Ukraine’s growing technological capabilities, they might well be able to say, “Thanks for your help, but we don’t need your advice anymore,” to the United States.
This marks the end of the goodwill generated by the Marshall Plan and signifies the end of the U.S. President being recognized as the leader of NATO.
It’s over. Obama initiated it. Trump escalated it. Biden concluded it. The sequence of events was disastrous. I can only hope the next chapter finds a way to rectify it. The mistakes of President George Bush now seem minor compared to the actions of the last three Presidents.
I’ve managed medium to large-sized teams, but I never fully embraced the saying that a team can only move as fast as its slowest member. I have found ways to work around them. Only in the past few years have I seen the real-world application of this idea, on such a large scale.
This war has meandered because of the United States and Germany. The cost has soared to unnecessary heights, largely due to their lack of commitment. Low-end weapons, delivered at the last minute in large quantities, have kept Putin in the game while significantly increasing the cost of the war for the West and the toll on Ukrainian lives.
Germany has completely transformed. They’re now driving the effort and are fully capable of seeing it through. President Biden, on the other hand, hasn’t changed — he’s doubling down. Putin’s last hopes rested on Biden and Trump, but neither will be around to shield him in the future.
The situation is slowly slipping further and further from Putin’s grasp. His trusted escalation managers, who have managed to exert control, will soon be gone. Every day, their ability to influence the war diminishes, while Ukraine, Germany and Europe grow more independent. From coordinating counteroffensives with the U.S. in 2022, Ukraine has now reached the point where, in 2024, they no longer feel the need to share their plans.
It’s no coincidence that when Ukraine invaded Kursk, they did so using German and European vehicles.
It is still gravitating towards the ‘no, thank you’ stage. I hope the escalation managers don’t do anything to escalate it to the following:
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 270 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
