Ukraine Gets Critical Boost: Germany Delivers Another Patriot System
Let the Network Effect Build
Germany delivered the third Patriot unit to Ukraine.
According to the German Ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Jaeger, the system has already been delivered and “the Ukrainian crew of the system successfully underwent appropriate training in Germany in recent months.”
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, thanked Germany for sending the Patriot air-defense system. He said:
“I want to thank our partners for fulfilling their commitments regarding air defense. We set a goal to double the strength of our air shield, and today marks the beginning of this. I am grateful to Germany for the Patriot system, which is already in Ukraine — this is excellent news.
Additionally, I thank the United States for taking another step in strengthening our air defense and our Patriots. We continue to work, and new decisions will surely follow.
Ukrainians have already proven that there are no Russian missiles we cannot shoot down. We are doing everything possible to ensure Russian terror is defeated”.
The Current Status of Long-Range Air-Defense Systems in Ukraine
Delivered:
Germany: Two Patriot batteries and one Patriot fire unit. A fire unit is the minimum component required for the Patriot to function as a long-range air-defense system.
United States: One Patriot battery.
Netherlands: Multiple Patriot launchers. The exact details about this system remain classified. It is unknown whether it is a full battery, a fire unit, or just the launchers.
Italy: One SAMPT/NG long-range air-defense system.
Total delivered: Six long-range units in varied compositions.
Pending delivery:
1. One Patriot battery from Romania.
2. One Patriot battery from the Netherlands and an unidentified European ally.
3. One Patriot unit (potentially a fire unit) from the United States.
4. One SAMPT/NG from Italy.
The Biden administration has delivered:
The arrival of the German Patriot fire unit in Ukraine follows the Biden administration’s decision earlier this week to send hundreds of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. While specifics were not provided, the air-defense package was valued at over $2 billion, which is sufficient to send around 500 PAC-2 interceptors to Ukraine.
There are two variants of Patriot interceptors:
PAC-2: $4 million per missile
PAC-3: $5 million per missile
It is unlikely that the United States delivered all 500 missiles at once. More probably, they secured clearance to send 500 missiles and are delivering them in tranches. This approach ensures smooth logistics because the bill has been raised, payments have been made, and the shipment schedule has been prepared.
Having nine Patriot air-defense systems without sufficient air-defense missiles to load them up with is stupid. Earlier this year, Ukraine faced a similar situation when they had four Patriot air-defense systems but insufficient missiles. During this period of vulnerability, Russian armed forces launched a barrage of missiles at hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine, causing significant damage.
Estimates suggest that the Russian attack on the hydroelectric power plant near Kyiv cost half a billion dollars. Ukraine’s electric grid survived only because it was connected to Europe’s grid, allowing a quick switch and preventing a collapse into intermittent darkness.
For nearly two and a half years, we have observed a pattern where the West takes one step forward but often forgets to continue. However, this time, they have committed to sending nine Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine and ensured that Ukrainian shelves are stocked with a clear and predictable number of air-defense missiles.
This foresight allows Ukraine to plan without the cloud of ambiguity.
What a difference one month can make?
Barely a month ago, Politico reported that Germany’s initiative to enhance Ukraine’s air-defense coverage had fallen flat. I found that assessment to be extremely premature. The German effort to rally allies in donating Patriot air-defense units to Ukraine has been a long and intense struggle, but Germany has ultimately prevailed.
Germany has managed to more than double Ukraine’s air-defense network. The first of the additional six promised systems has now arrived in Ukraine. Additionally, the United States has unexpectedly cleared the way to send approximately 500 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, significantly bolstering its air-defense capabilities.
Both Germany and the United States have publicly stated that they will not restrict Ukraine from firing at Russian fighter jets flying inside Russia if those jets are moving towards attacking Ukraine. I don’t think the United States is going to relax its restrictions on Ukraine using ATACMS missiles to attack Russian airbases. I am perfectly fine with it now.
I believe the offensive potential of a loaded Patriot system pitted against a fast moving Russian jet in the air is higher than that of the ATACMS taking out parked Russian jets.
Using Patriots as mobile offensive weapons against the Russian air force will yield better results than ATACMS attacks on Russian air bases. Ideally, having both capabilities would be optimal. However, if I had to choose, I would prefer the permission to use Patriots offensively over ATACMS attacks on Russian air bases.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 223 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
