Ukraine Hits Back: Using Putin’s Own Playbook Against Him
Fighting Fire with Fire
For the first time since the Russian invasion began, Ukraine has launched a coordinated aerial attack on a target inside Russia. Until now, Ukrainian forces relied on drones — sometimes in small groups, sometimes alone — or their missiles in isolated strikes. But yesterday, Ukraine deployed Putin’s own strategy: a synchronized assault using both drones and missiles to overwhelm defenses and destroy a critical target.
Russia’s method is simple but devastating. First, they unleash a swarm of drones to draw air defenses into action. Then, they launch missiles from all directions: Kalibr missiles scream in from the Russian naval fleet in the southeast, Kinzhal and Zircon missiles barrel down from bombers in the northeast, and Iskander missiles rain from mobile ground-based launchers in the east. These strikes are meticulously timed, with drones often launched hours earlier to exhaust air defenses, clearing the way for missiles to punch through. The entire operation is a brutal symphony of destruction aimed at overwhelming a single target. Yesterday, Ukraine flipped the script.
Ukraine has long had drones — its recent attacks inside Russian territory proved that. But in recent months, it announced the mass production of three missiles: the Neptune Cruise Missile, Palinastya Drone Missile, and Peklo Drone Missile. Each of these weapons is designed to carry heavier payloads and inflict greater damage than drones alone. Their first combined operation was a calculated show of force.
Ukraine attacked the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast with long-range drones and missiles. This is not the first time Ukraine has targeted this refinery. In July this year, Ukraine attacked this facility with drones. In August, the S-300 air-defense system the Russians had positioned in the area was taken out by Ukrainian missiles. Rostov Oblast, where the refinery is located, is a key staging area for the Russian armed forces.
The Russians should have known Ukraine would keep attacking this refinery. They should have shut it down. But that is not an easy task. With an annual production capacity of 7.5 million tons, the facility, located just 200 km from the front line, is a crucial supply node for the Russian military in eastern Ukraine. Instead of shutting the facility down after the July attack, the Russians repaired it in November.
One month later, Ukraine tested its new attack strategy on the refinery. We need to wait just a little longer to assess the extent of the damage, as this is the first time we have confirmation that a Ukrainian-made missile was included in the refinery attack.
Ukraine has made it a habit to respond to Russia’s attacks on its energy infrastructure. On December 13, Russians fired 91 missiles, each one targeting energy infrastructure spread across Ukraine. One week later, Ukraine knocked out a key Russian refinery. The message is clear: You can damage us, but we can return the favor. That is one way to manage escalation. A brute understands force.
Since the mixed drone-and-missile attack has now been executed, there is one more type of attack still pending: a drone swarm. At times, Ukraine has attacked with 60 drones. But considering their high production rate, Ukraine could strike Russian targets in the rear with a massed drone attack involving more than 100 drones.
If these response attacks by Ukraine become more potent, they may make Putin question the wisdom of his missile barrages. The addition of long-range air-defense systems — Ukraine now has double the units it had compared to last year — has increased their ability to intercept Russian missiles. Putin is no longer achieving the same level of success with his missile strikes.
Every refinery damaged by Ukraine’s counterattacks will shrink his cash flow further. The wave of attacks Ukraine launched in March 2024 knocked out close to 20% of Russia’s production capacity (refined products), forcing Russia to import fuel from Belarus and maintain a standing contract to begin imports from Kazakhstan. This was when the ruble was trading below 90 against the dollar. Now it has surged past 100. Putin is not in a position to absorb a similar level of damage.
He would be better off not using his missiles against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Churchill was right: Peace will come through the accumulation of deterrents.
Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 340 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
