Ukraine Hunts the Hunter
In a historic first, Ukraine successfully targets and brings down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber during a combat mission
I am still not done calculating the damage Ukraine inflicted on the Russian airforce in Dzankhoi airfield on Wednesday. I think it will take a bit more time as the damages are so extensive. It will be worth the wait because it may have already downgraded Russia’s air defense in Crimea to a lower level.
Before Russians could catch their breath and collect all the scrap metal, Ukraine delivered a significant psychological blow to the Russian air force by bringing down a Tu strategic bomber mid-flight. Ukraine has destroyed Russian bombers before, but they did so when the aircraft were parked on the airfield. This is the first time they have successfully taken down a bomber in the air.
It was most likely returning from a bombing mission.
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) took responsiblity for the attack:
“One of the Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, which carried out a missile attack against Ukraine on the night of April 19, was shot down as a result of a special operation of the Main Directorate of Intelligence in cooperation with the Air Force.
The enemy Tu-22M3 aircraft was shot down at a distance of about 300 kilometers from Ukraine by the same means that were previously used to shoot down the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft.
As a result of the damage, the bomber was able to fly to the Stavropol region, where it fell and crashed. It should be noted that this is the first successful destruction of a strategic bomber in the air during a combat sortie during the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
There are no public details available over the cost of Russia’s Tupolev (Tu) bombers, but if I have to wager, I am going to keep it very close to 283 million dollars. The B1B lancer, a comparable bomber with the United States airforce costs around 283 million dollars.
Ouch.
One billion dollars went up in smoke at the Dzankhoi airfield on April 17th. A quarter of a billion dollars went up in smoke today.
This is not the first time Russia has lost a Tupolev bomber. Ukraine has been knocking down Russia’s bomber fleet little by little for a very long time.
Engels air base, located about 600 km from the Ukrainian border, has faced repeated assaults from Ukrainian combat drones. The Engels-2 base is home to the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, which operates the Tu-160M, and the 184th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, flying the Tupolev Tu-95MS. Together, these units form the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division.
In December 2022, Ukrainian forces managed to inflict damage on at least two strategic Tu-95MS bombers stationed at the airfield.
On August 23, 2023, BBC reported the destruction of a TU bomber.
Images posted on social media and analysed by BBC Verify show a Tupolev Tu-22M on fire at Soltsy-2 airbase, south of St Petersburg. Moscow said that a drone was hit by small-arms fire but managed to “damage” a plane. Ukraine has not commented.
On April 5th, Ukraine’s drones entered the Engels-2 airfield inflicting serious damage on three Tu-95MS bombers. Kyrolo Budanov’s team took responsbility for the attack.
How did Ukraine bring down a bomber known for flying at extremly high altitudes?
In the last week of February, Ukraine destroyed the second A-50 early warning aircraft this year over Krasnodar Krai. The location of the attack was more than a hundred kilometers away from the frontline. I still have no idea how Ukraine mounted the attack.
I started gravitating towards the theory that it was friendly fire that brought down that A50 this year. After today’s attack on Russia’s strategic bomber, I am not very sure about the Russian theories that it is either friendly fire or technical malfunctions that keep bringing their airborne vehicles to the ground.
The Tu-22M3 that was destroyed today was hit while flying over Stavropol in southwestern Russia. The distance from the frontline is easily more than 300 kilometers
Russians are claiming that it was a technical malfanction that destroyed the plane. Russia was infact very busy today as they fired another volley of missiles into Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s defense ministry, 29 aerial targets were brought down.
- 2 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles
- 14 Shahed UAVs
- 11 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles
- 2 Kh-22 cruise missiles
The Tu-22M3 can carry many different types of Kh-XX missiles. If I were to add both incidents together, I would wager Ukrainians took down the missiles fired by the bomber and somehow found a way to send one of their ground-to-air or air-to-air missiles to knock off the bomber. I spent a lot of time trying to figure out what kind of weapon systems one can use to bring down a strategic bomber flying 300 kilometers away from the frontline.
I don’t think Ukraine has any weapons system that can reach that far. It cannot be the Patriots. It could possibly be the fighter jets, although it’s risky. But even if that were the case, how in the heck do you bring down a bomber, who is flying deep inside Russian territory, an area that would have been covered by air-defense systems? So, it can’t be Ukranian fighter jets on a daring mission either.
The only plausible speculation I can come up with is that Ukraine brought the bomber down during its landing phase through a special ops team operating behind enemy lines.
Of course, we cannot ignore the fact that it was Ukraine’s spy chief Kyrolo Budanov’s team that claimed responsibility for the attack. So, they are not exactly trying to keep it a secret that there is a special ops team operating behind enemy lines that is responsible for bringing down Russia’s highly prized aviation units.
Ukraine keeps chipping away at the margins.
In August 2023, following Ukraines drone strikes against Russian airports in Soltsy and Shaykovka, Ukraine’s spy chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia has around 27 Tu-22M3 bombers.
“They had about 31 operable Tu-22s left, now 29, and not counting two others that are being repaired — 27,” the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Ukraine is slowly but steadily eating into Russia’s strategic bomber fleet.
This is what they did against the Black Sea Fleet. When it all started, we witnessed just one hit here and one hit there. But things do pile up. Have you noticed, it is never the big bills that hurt us? Because most of the time we would have made a plan for them. But it’s the small ones, if left without a care, that quickly add up and start taking a huge bite out of disposable income.
Those small bites always matter, because they add up quickly.
The steady strikes on A50s have already brought their surveillance fleet to a precarious level. Russians are just one more hit away from losing their ability to have round-the-clock aerial surveillance operations.
The size of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is starting to come down. One strike at a time. Russia’s most favorite hunter to gobble up Ukrainian lives is getting hunted. One bomber at a time.
Why these hits are so important for Ukraine?
Ukraine will not win this war if the Russian air force remains a formidable power. Let’s think about it for a moment. If Ukraine starts breaking the line near Robotyne or near Kherson and begins rolling towards the Sea of Azov, it will be a “run or stay and die” moment for the Russian ground forces.
Putin is not going to sit there with eight hundred missiles, few hundred glide bombs, and three hundred fighter jets. He is going to bomb the hell out of the advancing Ukrainian troops. He will press them for one large surge.
He will throw everything he has in his possession. Win today. Throw whatever you can. Let us worry about tomorrow later, will be the essence of his order.
It would be ideal if Ukraine can neutralize the combat power that gives Putin the space to take such decisions. They have already done so to the Black Sea Fleet. There is still more work to be done against the Black Sea Fleet. But in terms of combat power, the current Black Sea Fleet may not even be close to 50% of where it was before the start of the war.
One strength was taken out. Now it is time for Ukraine to do the same with the Russian airforce.
To succeed…. Ukrainian ground forces need the Russian airforce to be silent.
Better yet… Make them gone.
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